US November core CPI 4.0% y/y versus 4.0% y/y expected - ForexLive

US core CPI yy

• CPI y/y +% versus 3.1% expected
• Prior y/y 3.2%
• CPI m/m +0.1% versus 0.0% expected
• Prior m/m 0.0%

Core measures:

• Core CPI m/m +0.3% versus +0.3% expected. Last month 0.2%
• Core CPI y/y 4.0% versus 4.0% expected. Last month was 4.0%
• Shelter +0.4% versus +0.3% last month. Up 6.5% y/y
• Services less rent of shelter +0.6% m/m vs +0.3% prior (+3.5% y/y)
• Real weekly earnings +0.5% vs -0.1% prior
• Food +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% m/m prior
• Food +2.9% y/y
• Energy -2.3% m/m vs -2.5% m/m prior
• Energy -5.4% y/y
• Rents +0.5% m/m vs +0.5% prior
• Owner equivalent rent +0.5% vs +0.4% prior
• Full report

As reminder how quickly things can change: At the time of the October CPI report, the market was pricing in a 33% chance of a January hike.

Now we're pricing in 120 bps in cuts next year versus 115 bps before the report. The US dollar is sliding in the immediate aftermath (update: it's reversed that). The market isn't too worried about that 0.1 pp miss on the headline.

Shelter (+6.0% y/y) and motor vehicle insurance (+19.2%) are the only real sources of worrisome upward pressure in prices left.

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2023-12-12 13:30:00Z
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