Canada's gross domestic product edged up 0.1 per cent in the month of June, with 0.8 per cent real GDP growth in the second quarter of this year, Statistics Canada said Wednesday.
The Canadian economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3 per cent during the second quarter, its fourth consecutive expansion.
After flat growth in May, 14 of 20 industrial sectors had a slight expansion in June, with client-facing industries — like travel and restaurants — driving much of the growth after the easing of public health and border restrictions.
But the data agency said there are early indications that the real GDP came down by 0.1 per cent in July, particularly in manufacturing, retail trade, wholesale and utilities sectors.
Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC, said in a note Wednesday morning that GDP growth, while solid overall in the second quarter, was still "weaker than anticipated."
A soft start to the third quarter, he said, suggests that "the economy is reacting quicker to rising interest rates than the Bank of Canada may have been anticipating."
The Bank of Canada has called the Canadian economy "overheated" and has been combatting high inflation with a series of interest rate hikes.
In its ongoing campaign to cool the annual inflation rate, which reached 7.6 per cent in July, the central bank increased borrowing rates to 2.5 per cent in July. Another jumbo rate hike is expected on Sept. 7.
The report says businesses ramped up their investments in inventories, engineering structures and machinery and equipment.
Meanwhile, household spending on semi-durable goods rose, with the jump driven by an increase in spending on clothing and footwear as more people headed back to the office.
At the same time, housing investment declined in the second quarter along with household spending on durable goods.
WATCH | BMO economist Doug Porter says Canadians still eager to spend:
Canadians still eager to spend, says BMO economist
6 hours ago
Duration 0:49
Doug Porter, chief economist for Bank of Montreal, says there is 'still a bit of firepower' in Canadians' spending right now, despite the hit that higher interest rates have inflicted on the housing sector.
"We're seeing that those interest rate hikes are starting to take a pretty big bite out of the housing market," said Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics with Desjardins, in an interview with CBC News.
"We're anticipating that consumption is going to start to slow somewhat as well, just given the fact that interest rates are higher and we're seeing that consumer credit is starting to increase somewhat," he said.
"[As] the savings rate is coming down, it's going to be more challenging environment for Canadians who are used to being able to borrow relatively inexpensively for consumption, too."
Disposable income rose — as did household incomes, with higher compensation of employees — but savings rates declined from 9.5 per cent to 6.2 per cent in the second quarter.
By comparison, that rate was 2.7 per cent at the end of 2019, the agency said.
While the report provides the aggregate savings rate, Statistics Canada noted that savings rates tend to be higher among those in higher income brackets.
"Although these estimates suggest ongoing resiliency in household net savings, inflationary pressures on consumption and trends in employee compensation will likely be key determinants of future outcomes," the agency said in its report.
“Quiet quitting” is the latest term popping up on social media feeds, gaining traction among workers who are tired of going above and beyond for little return.
But, now, the conversation has turned to a related topic — “quiet firing.”
If your employer regularly expects you to do more than your job description for the same pay, call it what it is: quiet firing.
Makes a lot more sense than this "quiet quitting" nonsense.
Essentially, quiet firing happens when employers demoralize workers enough that they decide to leave on their own. This can happen in various ways, such as not responding to requests for promotions or wage increases, increasing workloads to an unmanageable level, or by snuffing out opportunities for career growth.
‘Quiet quitting’ and changing work in Canada – Aug 18, 2022
Other terms for quiet firing include “constructive dismissal” or “managing out,” but regardless, it can be pinpointed with behaviour like micromanaging, leaving employees out of the loop, cutting back hours and other passive-aggressive workplace tactics.
Some people argue the problem doesn’t lie with those who are setting healthy boundaries between work and life, but instead lies with employers who create workplaces that are so awful the employee feels no choice but to quit.
“A lot of talk about ‘quiet quitting’ but very little talk about ‘quiet firing,’ which is when you don’t give someone a raise in 5 years even though they keep doing everything you ask them to,” Randy Miller, a software developer, tweeted, summing up the general sentiment.
A lot of talk about “quiet quitting” but very little talk about “quiet firing” which is when you don’t give someone a raise in 5 years even though they keep doing everything you ask them to.
“I was TOLD as a manager some years ago that we were to do this, and these tactics were to ‘encourage people to take a new path on their own accord because they might not fit the culture’ … a.k.a. tiring them out so they’d leave on their own because there wasn’t enough to say they weren’t good at their job, or they weren’t doing their jobs. It’s disgusting yet a well-known way of management in many organizations. I’ve seen it done, I have experienced it as well,” Alexandra H., a creative strategist, wrote on LinkedIn’s poll.
“I’ve seen it firsthand with supervisors who feel threatened by your existence. You don’t know why but they simply want you out. You are constantly made to feel like you cannot do anything right even when you are hitting your goals,” shared Robin McCarson, a business owner and former senior vice-president of a home health care operation.
‘Quiet quitting’ and changing work in Canada – Aug 18, 2022
Matthew Fisher, an employment lawyer and partner at Toronto-based Lecker & Associate, told Canadian Business magazine that not every skipped promotion or change in workflow means an employee is being quietly fired, but if there’s a clear pattern or multiple instances of such behaviour, he says, it may be a sign an employee is being pushed out the door.
“Employees know in their gut that something is wrong … Taking away their duties, diminishing their title — it’s essentially death by a thousand cuts,” he told the magazine.
That’s especially true in Canada, where the rights for terminated employees are “quite substantial” compared to the U.S., said Fisher.
Laura Williams, managing partner of Williams HR Law LLP and the CEO of Williams Consulting Inc., told Global News that quiet firing is “almost like a game of chicken for employees and employers.”
Laura Williams.
Courtesy / Laura Williams
“Instead of … taking that tough decision of ‘we’re going to end the employment relationship,’ it’s ‘let’s see if we can get them to leave.’ And again, we won’t have that financial obligation to make the termination payouts.”
Linda Nazareth, a Toronto-based economist and host of the Work and the Future podcast, told Global News that quiet firing is a passive-aggressive form of making an employee’s life miserable, while not dealing with the problem directly.
“Honestly, if you are quietly firing people, it’s either bad management in that you’re trying to not pay them the layoff or you just don’t want to deal with this head-on. And you are allowing people to be there who you don’t really want to have there. So something’s not right.”
Linda Nazareth.
Courtesy / Linda Nazareth
Williams says that managers who are attempting to quietly fire their employees should probably reevaluate their methods, as there can be harsh consequences if caught.
“First of all, if you are mistreating an employee and making their lives miserable within the workplace, you could be held liable for committing a constructive dismissal. And constructive dismissal is when the employer unilaterally changes the material conditions in terms of an employee’s employment,” she said, also warning of the risk of diminished workplace morale, and that employees could allege workplace harassment over passive-aggressive behaviour.
Nazareth agrees, saying that stealthy quiet firing techniques could potentially result in a disengaged staff.
“I don’t see how there’s a win in having people not be engaged and not contributing to the best of their abilities. So it is definitely not the culture you want to create,” she said.
If you’re worried that you’re being quietly fired, Forbes magazine contributor Jack Kelly advises that you speak directly with your manager or supervisor about your concerns.
“Although it may be a lost cause, you may want to have a conversation with your boss. Share with your manager that you feel that you’re being unfairly persecuted. Provide facts, data and any correspondence from co-workers and clients that show you are in fact a productive worker and good at your job,” Kelly writes, adding that employees need to be direct “since you have nothing to lose at this point.”
Kelly says a frank, direct conversation can help clear the air, especially if an employee works to incorporate any feedback given by a higher-up.
“Since it’s a two-way street, the manager must put aside their animosity and view you in a fresh new light untainted by past prejudices.”
(CNN)Russian energy giant Gazprom said on Tuesday that it will completely suspend gas supplies to French industrial energy group Engie this week due to a contract dispute, amid concerns of a potential energy crisis in Europe this winter.
In a statement on its official Telegram channel, Gazprom said: "At the close of the business day on August 30, Gazprom Export did not receive full payment for gas supplied to Engie (France) in July under the existing contracts."
The Gazprom statement added that Russian law prohibits the country's natural gas suppliers to supply further deliveries of gas to foreign buyers if payment has not been made in full by the buyer within the contractual term.
Gazprom added that it has notified Engie of a complete suspension of gas deliveries beginning September 1 until full payment for the gas supplied has been received.
The announcement came just hours after Gazprom said it would reduce its supply of gas to France.
The decrease in supply is "due to a disagreement between the parties on the application of contracts," Engie said in a statement earlier Tuesday.
"This reduction is the logical continuation of the actions of Gazprom for several months, which does not respect its contracts, and which reduces its supplies to most of its customers," a source inside the cabinet of the French energy ministry told CNN, adding that Gazprom's actions did not compromise the security of France's supply.
Engie also said a Gazprom reduction would not affect supply.
The company had "already secured the necessary volumes to ensure the supply of its customers and of its own needs" and it has implemented a series of "measures to significantly reduce the direct financial and physical impacts that could result from an interruption of gas deliveries by Gazprom," it said.
Engie did not respond immediately to CNN's request for comment on the complete suspension.
Oil prices saw their largest daily gain in nearly six weeks on Monday, with supply concerns in both Libya and Iraq spurring bullish sentiment.
On Tuesday morning, however, that bullish sentiment had decidedly turned, with oil prices falling by 3% as inflation fears and concerns about demand returned.
Violence in Iraq overnight failed to spark further concerns about the country’s oil demand, with the director general of SOMO claiming it could export more oil if necessary.
Oil prices dipped by nearly 3% early on Tuesday, losing around $3 from Monday’s close, as fears of a global economic slowdown intensified while fears of a loss of supply from OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, abated.
As of 8:43 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Brent Crude was down by 2.82% at $102.19. The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, traded down 2.46% on the day at $94.62.
Oil prices saw on Monday their biggest daily gain in nearly six weeks after Brent hit $104 per barrel yesterday due to concerns about supply from both Libya and Iraq, as well as the possibility of an OPEC+ production cut.
On Tuesday, concerns about demand prevailed, with prices losing ground amid continuous fears that aggressive interest rate hikes from central banks, including the Fed, would slow down economies for a prolonged period of time.
In a Friday speech, Federal Reserve’s Chair Jerome Powell said that large interest rate hikes could continue and could slow the economy “for some time,” and that rates could be higher for longer.
In addition, the oil market swept aside, for now, concerns that the deadly clashes in Iraq would hurt the country’s oil industry and exports.
At least 15 people have been killed and scores of others wounded in overnight fighting in the Iraqi capital, following protestors’ storming of the presidential palace on Monday. Fighting broke out in and around the Green Zone after hundreds of protesters loyal to powerful Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadar tore down cement barriers and charged through the Republican Palace following the cleric’s announcement on Monday that he would withdraw from politics.
Iraq can ramp up its oil exports and will not decline any requests for more crude, Alaa Al-Yassiri, director general of state oil marketing company SOMO, told Bloomberg in an interview on Tuesday. SOMO could even redirect more Iraqi oil to Europe if necessary, a source at the marketing firm told Reuters today.
After spending almost a decade working in computer science and artificial intelligence (AI), Sasha Luccioni was ready to uproot her whole life three years ago after she became deeply concerned by the climate crisis.
But her partner convinced her to not give up her career completely but instead apply her knowledge of AI to some of the challenges posed by climate change.
"You don't need to quit your job in AI in order to contribute to fighting the climate crisis," she said. "There are ways that almost any AI technique can be applied to different parts of climate change."
She joined the Montreal-based AI research centre Mila and became a founding member of Climate Change AI, an organization of volunteer academics who advocate using AI to solve problems related to climate change.
Do you have a question about climate change and what is being done about it? Send an email to ask@cbc.ca.
Sasha Luccioni, a founding member of the non-profit group Climate Change AI, decided to apply her computer science knowledge to problems related to climate change. (Camille Rochefort-Boulanger)
Luccioni is part of a growing community of researchers in Canada who are using AI in this way.
In 2019, she co-authored a report arguing that machine learning can be a useful tool for mitigating and adapting to the effects of climate change.
Computer scientists define machine learning as a form of artificial intelligence that enables computers to use historical data and statistical methods to make predictions and decisions without having to be programmed to do so.
Common applications of machine learning include predictive text, spam filters, language translation apps, streaming content recommendations, malware and fraud detection and social media algorithms.
Applications for machine learning in climate research include climate forecasting and optimization of electricity, transportation and energy systems, according to the 2019 report.
Preparing for crop diseases
Researchers at the University of Prince Edward Island (UPEI) are using AI modelling to warn farmers about risks to their crops as weather becomes more unpredictable.
"If you have a dry year, you see very little disease, but with a wet year, you can get quite a bit of disease around plants," said Aitazaz Farooque, interim associate dean of UPEI's School of Climate Change and Adaptation.
Aitazaz Farooque is the interim associate dean of the UPEI School of Climate Change and Adaptation, which is piloting a project that aims to use weather forecasting to predict crop diseases. (Jane Robertson/CBC)
Researchers can plug weather data from previous years into an AI model to predict the type of diseases that might jeopardize crops at different times of the year, said Farooque.
"Then the grower can be a bit proactive and have an understanding of what they're getting into," he said.
WATCH | Take a look at UPEI's School of Climate Change and Adaptation:
A tour of the new climate change lab at St. Peter's Bay
26 days ago
Duration 3:55
From the drones to the dorms, the state-of-the-art research facility in St. Peter’s Bay will have students and world-class researchers studying the many facets of climate change.
PEI's agriculture is mostly rain fed, and providing farmers with more accurate rainfall predictions can also help them have more successful crop yields, said Farooque.
"With climate change, we are seeing different trends where the total cumulative rainfall doesn't change much, but the timing matters," he said.
"If it doesn't happen at the right time, then the sustainability of our agriculture can be at risk."
Studying behaviour around disruptive weather
Another application of AI is being studied at McGill University, where researchers are using historical and recent weather data to predict the social impacts of extreme weather events that are being affected by climate change, such as heat waves, droughts and floods.
According to Renee Sieber, an associate professor in McGill's geography department, researchers are hoping to find out how people responded to disruptive weather events in the past and whether that can teach us anything about how resilient we will be in the future.
The McGill Observatory contains weather records from as far back as 1863 that will be used in an AI project analyzing people's responses to extreme weather events. (McGill University Archives)
The team will use a form of AI called natural language processing to analyze social narratives related to weather events in newspapers and other media.
"The AI is very good for organizing, synthesizing, finding trends or some sentiment out of vast amounts of unstructured text," said Sieber.
"Basically, what you do is throw journal articles into a bucket, and you see what comes out."
Sieber said her team will take the findings from past articles and today's social media and compare them with corresponding weather records to identify people's responses to weather events over time.
Records from the McGill Observatory are the longest and most detailed uninterrupted written records of weather patterns in Canada and contain a massive amount of information, said Sieber. Weather recording there began in 1863 and continued into the 1950s.
"This data is the only direct measure of climate change that we have [in Canada]," said Sieber.
Optimizing energy use
Some Canadian companies are using AI to minimize waste and build more energy efficient infrastructure.
Scale AI, a Montreal-based investors group that funds projects related to supply chains, has worked with grocery chains such as Loblaws and Save-on-Foods to identifying purchasing patterns. Through AI, companies are able to better predict demand and less food items are going to waste, said Scale AI CEO Julien Billot.
"Every optimization we can achieve improves the resilience of supply chains and contributes to the use of less resources," she said.
Another Montreal company, BrainBox Al, is focused on improving energy efficiency by optimizing HVAC systems in commercial buildings.
The machine-learning technology is contained in a 30 cm wide box that connects to a building's HVAC system. It raises or lowers temperatures based on data inputs such as weather forecasts, utility prices and carbon-emission calculations.
BrainBox AI technology optimizes a building's HVAC system using data such as weather forecasts and utility prices. (BrainBox AI)
The system has been able to cut energy consumed by some HVAC systems by 25 per cent, BrainBox CEO Sam Ramadori said, and over two years, the company has installed the technology in 350 buildings in 18 countries.
"The same kind of intelligence that we are bringing to buildings has probably an infinite number of applications. Just pick a sector," Ramadori said.
"How we make cement, how we ship goods — all of those need to be made more efficient over time as part of the climate change fight."
According to Ramadori, BrainBox AI is working on technology that will allow buildings to link up with each other and communicate with energy grids through the company's cloud server.
Researchers work in the BrainBox AI office. (BrainBox AI)
This has the potential to minimize wasted energy on a city-wide scale as energy grids more accurately detect where and when power is needed, he said.
"The utility grid can say, 'Hey, the next two hours are going to be busy. I need you to find a way we can reduce consumption.' And with the AI brain up top, it's able to say, 'OK, I can reduce a bit here and a bit there. I've got you covered,'" said Ramadori.
Equity limitations to AI
Access to the kind of AI that can help solve climate-related problems is not equal across the globe.
Forest fires in North America, for example, tend to receive more attention from developers than locust infestations in East Africa, said David Rolnick, an assistant professor of computer science at McGill and a member of Mila.
"The way in which climate change impacts a community varies greatly between different geographies," said Rolnick, who is also the chair of Climate Change AI.
David Rolnick, an assistant professor in the School of Computer Science at McGill University and a member of Mila, said relying on AI to solve climate-related issues raises some equity concerns. (Guillaume Simoneau)
AI technology relies on data sets, and many communities do not have access to enough of the kind of robust data needed to create machine-learning algorithms, Rolnick said.
In Canada, some Indigenous and remote northern communities still face significant digital divides compared with other parts of the country, he said.
"Working on democratizing that is fundamentally important," Rolnick said.
Rolnick co-authored a study last year outlining various limitations to implementing AI for climate change solutions in Canada. It called for increased funding for AI research and more AI education in primary and secondary education as well as standards and protocols for data sharing related to climate projects.
Rapidly implementing large-scale AI literacy programs for policymakers and leaders in climate-relevant industries could help "demystify" AI, the report said.
"We often see a lack of relevant knowledge, and educational programs can help people understand what these tools can and cannot do," said Rolnick.
Moderna has said it is suing rival vaccine maker Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech, citing infringement on its patents in developing the first COVID-19 vaccine approved in the United States, alleging they copied technology that Moderna developed years before the pandemic.
The lawsuits set up a high-stakes showdown between the leading manufacturers of COVID-19 shots that are a key tool in the fight against the disease.
“Moderna believes that Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine Comirnaty infringes patents Moderna filed between 2010 and 2016 covering Moderna’s foundational mRNA technology,” the US-based biotech firm said in a statement on Friday.
“Pfizer and BioNTech copied this technology, without Moderna’s permission, to make Comirnaty,” Moderna said.
Pfizer and BioNTech said they have not fully reviewed the complaint, but expressed surprise over the litigation.
“The Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine was based on BioNTech’s proprietary mRNA technology,” a statement said. “We will vigorously defend against the allegations of the lawsuit.”
When the news broke, Pfizer shares fell nearly 1 percent, while BioNTech US-listed shares were down about 1.5 percent and Moderna shares slipped 1.7 percent.
Moderna on Friday sued rival vaccine maker Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech, citing infringement on its patents in developing the first COVID-19 vaccine approved in the US [File: Dado Ruvic/Reuters]
The lawsuit, which seeks undetermined monetary damages, was filed in the US District Court in the state of Massachusetts. Moderna said the lawsuit would also be filed in the Regional Court of Dusseldorf in Germany.
Just a decade old, Moderna, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, had been an innovator in the messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine technology that enabled unprecedented speed in developing the COVID-19 vaccine.
The mRNA technology used in the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech shots differs from that in traditional vaccines, which rely on injecting weakened or dead forms of a virus to allow the immune system to recognise it and build antibodies.
Instead, mRNA vaccines deliver instructions to cells to build a harmless piece of the spike protein found on the surface of the virus that causes COVID-19. After creating this spike protein, cells can recognise and fight the real virus, hailed as a major advancement in the development of vaccines.
Germany-based BioNTech had also been working in this field when it partnered with the US pharma giant Pfizer.
Lawsuits can take years to resolve
Moderna said it had begun building up the technology in 2010 and patented work on coronaviruses in 2015 and 2016, which allowed for the rollout of its shots in “record time” after the pandemic struck.
The virus has killed at least 6.48 million people worldwide since 2020 and made nearly 600 million ill, according to a Johns Hopkins University tracker.
In addition to death and suffering, the disease has led to a reshaping of life ranging from a change in norms on working from home to a scrambling of supply chains and workforces.
Moderna said it pledged in October 2020 not to enforce its COVID-19-related patents while the pandemic continued, but less than two years later changed that stance as the fight shifted gears.
“Moderna expected companies such as Pfizer and BioNTech to respect its intellectual property rights and would consider a commercially reasonable licence should they request one for other markets,” it said.
“Pfizer and BioNTech have failed to do so,” the firm added.
Pfizer and BioNTech are already facing multiple lawsuits from other companies which say the partnership’s vaccine infringes on their patents.
Germany’s CureVac, for instance, also filed a lawsuit against BioNTech in Germany in July. BioNTech responded in a statement that its work was original.
Moderna has also been sued for patent infringement in the US and has an ongoing dispute with the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) over rights to mRNA technology.
These types of lawsuits are not unheard of in the pharmaceutical industry, where patents can be worth billions of dollars, and can take years to resolve.
After fuelling Canada's economy through the COVID-19 pandemic, the real estate market is showing signs of weakness as home prices fall and bidding wars dissipate.
It's welcome news for prospective buyers hoping for a better price. But as the busy fall season nears, realtors and economists are at odds over how long the pricing slide will last and how low it will go.
"The fall is going to be interesting because we're going to see probably more buyers jumping into the market and you don't need a ton more buyers to provide a little bit more stability to prices," said John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty Inc. in Toronto.
"Just a little bit of a bump in demand could be the difference between homes selling in three, four weeks versus selling in two weeks or selling a lot faster."
The average home price is still above pre-pandemic levels, but increasing mortgage rates and inflationary pressures are weighing on the market.
When pandemic lockdowns began in March 2020, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said the average home price in the area -- one of Canada's hottest -- sat at $902,680. Last month, it was $1,074,754, a one per cent hike from July 2021, but a six per cent drop from June 2022.
The latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed prices hit $629,971 in July, down five per cent from $662,924 last July. On a seasonally adjusted basis, it amounted to $650,760, a three per cent drop from June. When pandemic lockdowns began in March 2020, the average national price was $543,920.
The association forecast the national average home price will rise by 10.8 per cent on an annual basis to $762,386 by the end of 2022 and hit $786,252 in 2023.
But some economists are anticipating an even greater price reduction.
In June, a trio of Desjardins economists said they expected the average national home price to fall by 15 per cent between its February high — $817,253 — and the end of 2023, but because "we're almost there," they adjusted their forecast in August to predict a drop between 20 and 25 per cent.
"That said, we still believe home prices will end 2023 above pre-pandemic levels nationally and in all 10 provinces."
In anticipation of a drop in prices, agents have noticed prospective buyers sitting on the sidelines of the market in recent months, while sellers come to terms with the fact that their homes won't fetch as much money as they would have at the start of the year.
Lori Fralic calls it a "stalemate."
"We are seeing lowball offers," said the Vancouver agent with Keller Williams Realty VanCentral.
"There's lots of bargain hunters out there who are throwing out offers but if they don't have to sell, a lot of sellers are saying, 'no, sorry, not taking it."
It's a change from the torrid pace of sales and frenzied bidding wars seen earlier in the year and late last year.
Much of the shift is attributable to mortgage rates, which mirror fluctuations in interests rates and can eat into buying power.
The Bank of Canada increased its key interest rate by one percentage point to 2.5 per cent in July in the largest hike the country has seen in 24 years.
Economists foresee the increases continuing and Fralic said they're already encouraging people who don't need to buy immediately to hold off.
She's seen a drop in prices in B.C., but said it's not as much of a decrease as many expected.
"If people are thinking (prices) are going to plummet, I don't think that's accurate," she said.
"If you look at the 10-year average of Metro Vancouver, housing prices are way up and if they do dip, they might dip slightly and come back up. There's always been sort of a steady incline with dips along the way."
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said the composite benchmark price for the region — often Canada's hottest — sat at more than $1.2 million in July, a roughly 10 per cent increase from July 2021 and a two per cent drop from June 2022.
"It's anyone's guess how much prices will fall," Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres, said.
Markets, she said, tend to be very localized and the surges or drops some see may not be mimicked in others.
For example, she said Alberta has not seen the slowdown many other Canadian markets have because its energy sector is much stronger than it was in the past.
But Cooper noted home sales activity have declined very sharply in the Greater Toronto Area, the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area and in parts of British Columbia around Vancouver.
"It's the markets that experienced the 50 per cent increase in home prices that have seen the biggest correction, and that's what you'd expect because those are the most expensive homes in Canada with the largest outstanding mortgages."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 24, 2022.
Nearly 3 in 4 millennials living in Toronto say owning a home is important to them, but less than a quarter believe they will ever be able to afford a place of their own in the city, according to a survey released Wednesday.
The survey, conducted in June by polling firm Leger on behalf of Royal LePage, asked 2,003 millennials (defined as residents between 26 and 41 years old) Canadawide about their views on home ownership, the cost of living and remote work. Of those who responded, 403 were in Toronto.
About 74 per cent of respondents in Toronto said owning a home is important to them, but only 22 per cent said they think they'll ever purchase a property in the city. Roughly 37 per cent of Toronto millennials surveyed said they believe they will need to relocate to ever become homeowners.
The results suggest those views may be tied to respondents' stagnant incomes.
"This overwhelming feeling that you can solve problems by relocating is an offshoot of the pandemic," said Phil Soper, the CEO of Royal LePage.
Soper says COVID-19 brought about a work-from-home movement with people choosing to move to other parts of the province — and even other parts of the country. But he says for many others, it's not a solution.
Four in five people surveyed saying if the cost of living was not an issue, they would choose to continue living in Toronto. But nearly half said they do not think their salaries will increase at a rate that would allow them to buy a home in the city.
Answers from respondents in Toronto reflect similar feelings among millennials across the country. Canadawide, 68 per cent of respondents said owning a home is important to them, but only 29 per cent said they think it could happen in their current city or town. About 31 per cent said they would need to move to make home ownership a reality.
Despite recent drops due in part to higher interest rates, the average price to purchase a detached single-family home in Toronto remains well above $1.5 million, according to the most recent MLS Home Price index. The average price of an apartment in the city is nearly $780,000, while the average rent across all types of housing is more than $2,100 per month.
Buying a home still a sign 'you've made it,' broker says
Andrew Ipekian, a real estate broker in the city, says the survey results aren't a surprise. He says many millennials were sold on the idea of owning a home, complete with the traditional white picket fence, as they were growing up.
"Everyone still wants that," said Ipekian.
"And in today's society — especially in Canada — that's when you know you've made it."
Toronto real estate broker Andrew Ipekian says people looking to buy a home in today's market are appealing for help from their parents or joining funds with other people, even if they aren't married. (Talia Ricci/CBC)
Ipekian says people who can work from home can also take advantage of opportunities to live outside of the city, which often comes with more space at a somewhat cheaper price tag.
The survey found that nearly half of Toronto millennials polled would consider changing employers to work remotely full-time, and that 23 per cent find living outside of the city with a remote work arrangement their ideal work and living scenario.
They cite long commute times, high commute costs, and the ability to manage their household as the three main motivators for wanting more remote work.
"The reality is that a lot of people are realizing if they can work from home, why would they live in a shoebox condo?" Ipekian said.
Home hunters share their struggles
Last year, Fiona Lacey lived in a 500-sq.-ft. condo in Toronto with her boyfriend. After the pandemic hit and she started to work primarily from home, she realized things could be better elsewhere.
"I always had dreams of having a backyard and having more space for our hobbies and our interests," said Lacey.
Today, Lacey lives with her boyfriend in Hamilton, and says she doesn't regret the move. She has her own office for work, a backyard for gardening, and loves being able to work on house projects — all things out of reach back in Toronto.
"We knew that Toronto wasn't going to happen for us," said Lacey.
Meanwhile, Bennett Jull moved to Toronto near the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and has been saving ever since to buy his own home in the city.
But whenever he's come across a a property he likes, he says bidding wars to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars over asking have left him priced out.
Bennett Jull is a renter in Toronto hoping to buy a property in the city. Even though some of his friends have moved outside of the city for housing, he hopes he doesn't have to resort to that. (Talia Ricci/CBC)
"It's 4 to $500,000 more and pretty quickly I'm like, yeah, I gotta see myself out of this one," said Jull.
For him, buying his own place means he can stop paying rent.
"It doesn't make much sense to keep throwing money away every single month if you can put it down on a mortgage," Jull said.
"Hopefully, the market enables people that are young to have that opportunity, and hopefully that comes sooner rather than later for me."
On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give his speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming.
The widely anticipated event will give hints about upcoming Fed policy.
To help market participants, Powell will need to be clear about when the Fed will stop raising rates, said Gary Wagner, editor at TheGoldForecast.com.
Wagner spoke with David Lin, Anchor and Producer at Kitco News.
“The main thing [market participants] want to understand is at what point will the Federal Reserve stop raising rates… and more importantly, at what point will they start to unwind or, in other words, reduce the Fed Funds rate,” said Wagner.
The Fed has raised its rate by 225 basis points from January to July. The inflation rate in July was 8.5 percent, down from 9.1 percent in June.
Prior to the 2021 Jackson Hole speech, Wagner had forecasted higher inflation going into 2022, when the Fed still had not raised rates.
“If you listen to some of Chairman Powell’s statements, over the past couple of months, he has acknowledged that they should have acted sooner,” he said. “I really do believe that had they started to use their toolbox sooner, we wouldn’t be looking at inflation sitting at 8.5 percent today.”
The Fed’s Forecasting Errors
The Fed failed to forecast inflation accurately, and thus failed policy-wise, said Wagner.
“At the last Jackson Hole symposium… [The Fed] was still under the assumption that inflation would be transitory, that it would work itself out of the system naturally,” he said. “If they had begun with small rate hikes of 25 basis points a year earlier, they could have had a series of them that wouldn’t shake the economy as quickly and as hard as it has.”
At the same time, Wagner acknowledged that unforeseen events, beyond the Fed’s control, had also caused higher prices. He pointed to the war in Ukraine as a “wild card” that increased oil prices “like a second-stage booster on a rocket.” He also said that food and energy prices, in general, are unlikely to be affected by Fed policy.
Labor Markets
The unemployment rate in July was 3.5 percent, a low rate despite high inflation and supply chain shortages.
However, Wagner predicted that once the job market reaches a new equilibrium, there will be “one job for every two people looking for one,” although he did not see this happening soon.
Other job market indicators also look favorable, with wages and salaries up 5.3 percent from last year.
Some economists are concerned about rising wages during inflationary times, since they claim that higher wages can lead to more inflation, as businesses raise prices to offset greater costs.
Wagner said that although wages were not a “critical” factor in causing inflation, they were “a very important and large piece of the puzzle.”
“We got to where we are because of multiple events occurring,” he said. “And the fact of the matter is that higher wages definitely added to the inflationary pressures we see now.”
To find out Wagner’s forecast for the gold price, watch the video above.
Follow David Lin on Twitter: @davidlin_TV (https://twitter.com/davidlin_TV)
Follow Kitco News on Twitter: @KitcoNewsNOW (https://twitter.com/KitcoNewsNOW)
Nearly six out of 10 millennials residing in the Greater Toronto Area haven’t yet given up on their ambitions to own a home one day but many believe they will have to relocate in order to do so and some are even willing to seek out remote jobs to make it happen, a new survey suggests.
The Royal LePage survey conducted by Leger reveals that 59 per cent of GTA residents between the ages of 26 and 41, who do not currently own a home, still believe that they will some day.
However, only 22 per cent of those respondents anticipated buying a home in the city where they currently reside.
Another 37 per cent said that they would have to relocate to realize the dream of home ownership while 13 per cent didn’t want to say.
Nationally, only 31 per cent of respondents said that they would have to relocate to afford a home.
The survey also found that a plurality of GTA residents (49 per cent) would change employers in order to be able to work fully remote. Nationally, the percentage of respondents who said that they would change jobs in order to work remotely was lower – about 40 per cent.
“A lot of people I think are caught up, young people, are caught up in the in the whole pandemic relocation wave that we saw for the very first time in the Golden Horseshoe, people leaving for other provinces,” Royal LePage President and CEO Phil Soper told CP24. “Typically we attract people from other provinces but during the pandemic that that trend reversed and I think our millennials, our younger homebuyers, our younger professionals are still thinking along the lines of remote work. (Toronto) Mayor Tory has talked about how some of that is changing but at this stage people are still thinking mobility will solve a lot of my problems.”
Real estate prices have fallen
Real estate prices in the GTA have fallen steadily in recent months amid a sustained campaign by the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates in a bid to battle inflation.
In a report released earlier this month, RBC warned that a housing correction already underway in the GTA could end up being “one of the deepest of the past half a century” with double-digit price declines from peak to trough.
However, it should be noted that the cost of buying a home in the Greater Toronto Area is still limiting for many residents with the average benchmark price in July coming in at $1,074,754.
According to the Royal LePage survey, more than half (56 per cent) of millennials in the GTA already own their home, which is roughly in line with the home ownership rate among that age group Canada-wide (57 per cent).
Of those who plan to purchase a home in the next five years, about 47 per cent said that they would do so in their current city while 45 per cent said that they would relocate.
Interestingly, when cost of living was excluded as a consideration approximately 80 per cent of GTA residents said that they would choose to remain in the region.
That was higher than any other urban centre for which a breakdown was provided.
“It comes back to what you want to do and what's important to you, as a family, as a person and for most Canadians, about seven in 10 Canadian families, own their homes. So it's been a long established way to build stability or security for your family and with millennial our research shows exactly the same mentality," Soper told CP24.
The Leger survey was conducted between June 10 and June 16 using an online panel of 2,003 individuals.
A margin of error was not provided because a non-probability sample (web panel) was used for this survey.
When Peiter Zatko, the famous hacker best known as Mudge, got the job heading up Twitter’s security in November 2020, internet archivist Jason Scott tweeted, “you have my full support to walk away after setting the place on fire.”
Zatko may have done just that, if not quite in that order. Several months after he was fired by CEO Parag Agrawal, Zatko blew the whistle on the company, telling the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that Twitter did basically nothing to improve its terrible security — the reason for Zatko’s hiring in the first place — and that the company has a pattern of lying to or misleading the government, investors, and Elon Musk.
Twitter did not address Zatko’s specific allegations in a statement to Recode, but said generally that they weren’t accurate and that Zatko was a disgruntled former employee whose timing is “opportunistic.”
“Mr. Zatko was fired from his senior executive role at Twitter in January 2022 for ineffective leadership and poor performance,” a spokesperson for Twitter said. “What we’ve seen so far is a false narrative about Twitter and our privacy and data security practices that is riddled with inconsistencies and inaccuracies and lacks important context.”
The Musk claims might get the most attention, given the eccentric billionaire’s high profile and the continuing controversy over his attempt to buy (and then not buy) Twitter. They’re placed relatively high in the SEC complaint that was leaked to the Washington Post and CNN on Tuesday, and some of the claims Zatko makes deal directly with the accusations Musk has made to try to get out of his $44 billion deal. Musk has said that fake accounts, or spam bots, are a much larger slice of Twitter’s user base than the company claimed, and therefore Twitter isn’t worth what he originally agreed to pay for it. Twitter disagrees, saying Musk is trying to find a reason to get out of the deal. The company sued Musk to force him to acquire the company. That trial is scheduled to begin October 17.
But those claims might be the least of Twitter’s worries connected to the leak. Zatko portrays Twitter as a company that lacks the motivation and ability to protect its users and itself from security breaches, while misleading investors and government agencies alike.
Here are some of the allegations that Twitter should be more worried about than what Agrawal tweets about bot accounts.
The allegation that Twitter deceived the Federal Trade Commission
Zatko alleges that Twitter violated a 2011 FTC consent order requiring the company to implement certain security protocols. Zatko says Twitter has never been in compliance with that order and likely never will be. He claims that has put the company (and the data of its users) at risk of security beaches like the one in 2020 that was the impetus for Zatko’s hiring.
The FTC is reportedly looking into those claims, and things could get very expensive for Twitter if they’re found to be true — just look at Facebook’s unprecedented $5 billion payout for violating an FTC consent order. It would also make Twitter a repeat offender; the company recently agreed to pay $150 million for asking for users’ information for security purposes and then using it to target ads to them. The FTC will not look kindly on that.
The claim that foreign government agents worked for Twitter and had access to user information — and Twitter knew it
One of Zatko’s more alarming revelations is that Twitter employed agents of the Indian government, meaning they would have had a great deal of access to data because the company hadn’t taken basic measures to limit that access for many employees. The complaint says that Twitter executives knew that too many employees had access to too much and that Indian government agents worked for the company, but did nothing in response. It also says the US government told Twitter that at least one of its employees was working on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, which isn’t named in the complaint.
If true, it wouldn’t be the first time Twitter has been infiltrated by people working for a foreign government, possibly to collect information on dissidents or rivals. A Saudi Arabian national was recently convicted of infiltrating Twitter to spy on users who were critical of the Saudi Arabian government, for which he was paid by an adviser to crown prince Mohammed bin Salman. Another former Twitter employee who was accused of spying for Saudi Arabia fled the country before he could be arrested.
The accusation that Jack Dorsey checked out and was replaced by the worst CEO ever
This may come as no surprise to anyone who watched the company founder and its then-CEO’s laconicappearances before Congress in the last few years, but Zatko says Dorsey was mostly absent from Twitter while Zatko worked there. Dorsey “was experiencing a drastic loss of focus in 2021,” the complaint says, attending few meetings and barely participating in the ones he did come to. Zatko says this made it hard for him to do his job and that he had no support in the “herculean effort” that was fixing Twitter. Dorsey was reportedly working from a private island in French Polynesia when the decision was made to ban President Trump from the platform. He stepped down from Twitter in late 2021.
Agrawal is now Twitter’s CEO, and seemingly the object of Zatko’s ire. The complaint repeatedly and frequently blames Agrawal for failing to improve Twitter’s security and privacy, trying to hide Twitter’s problems from investors and the board of directors, and not giving Zatko the support and resources Zatko felt he needed to do the job he was hired for. Though Dorsey was the CEO for most of Zatko’s Twitter tenure, he gets off easy in the report. That may not protect him from any fallout from this leak.
The allegation that Twitter long failed to follow basic security practices
Throughout the complaint, Zatko says the company refused to implement some basic security measures, even while counting some of the most powerful and important people in the world among its users. This has led, Zatko contends, to security breaches including the one that led to his hiring: A teenager was able to gain access to some of the most high-profile accounts on the platform and then use them to tweet bitcoin scams, ultimately stealing $120,000 worth of the cryptocurrency from victims. That hacker gained access by tricking Twitter employees into giving up their passwords, showing how lax Twitter apparently was about limiting and controlling access to high-profile accounts.
Unsurprisingly, this claim has so far attracted the bulk of the attention from members of Congress, most, if not all, of which are Twitter users themselves. According to the Washington Post, some lawmakers have already met with Zatko or are planning to in the near future. Expect Zatko to testify before committees, much like Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen did following her revelations (Zatko and Haugen both used Whistleblower Aid, a nonprofit legal assistance firm, to facilitate their complaints and represent them). What’s not clear is what legislators can do beyond sending angry letters or holding committee hearings, as Congress has failedto passfederal privacy laws. The SEC and FTC, on the other hand, may already be preparing their cases against Twitter for allegedly deceiving shareholders and consumers.
As for Musk, he has responded to the news with several tweets, including one of an illustration of Jiminy Cricket, who sings “Give a Little Whistle” in Pinocchio; a screenshot of the Washington Post article that said Twitter had internal spam and bot numbers it didn’t share with investors; and several tweets with a solitary emoji, including a monocle face and a crying laughing face.
Musk’s lawyer told the Washington Post that Zatko has already been subpoenaed for the Musk-Twitter trial.
Musk’s glee might be premature. If he loses his battle and is forced to buy Twitter, he won’t just be getting a company that’s already worth far less than the price he agreed to pay for it. He’ll also be getting a company that, if Zatko’s allegations are true, is rife with internal and external problems that someone will have to fix — and answer for.
