Due to the fact New Year’s Day falls on a Monday, it means a long weekend for many in the GTA, but if you’re looking to do something to shake off that New Year’s Eve hangover on the first day of 2024, there are few options available in the city.
Many businesses will be operating on holiday hours and several services will be paused and/or postponed by one day.
Banks, Canada Post offices and government services will be closed on Monday, Jan. 1. The Toronto Public Library will also be closed.
If your garbage pick up day is Monday, it will switch to Tuesday this week. Recycling collection that is normally scheduled for Tuesday will be moved to Wednesday this week. The rest of the week remains unchanged.
In Toronto, almost all city attractions will remain open including the CN Tower, Toronto Zoo, Casa Loma and Ripley’s Aquarium.
Here is what else is open and closed in Toronto:
TRANSIT
GO Transit will operate on a Saturday schedule for Jan. 1.
The TTC will be on a Sunday schedule on Jan. 1 with most routes and subway service starting at 8 a.m.
GROCERY AND ALCOHOL
LCBO and Beer stores will be closed on Jan. 1.
Select grocery stores will be open on New Year’s Day. Check with your local grocer for hours of operation. St. Lawrence Market will be closed.
The Art Gallery of Ontario will be open from 10:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. The Aga Khan museum will be open from 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. The Ontario Science Centre will be open from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. The Toronto Zoo will be open from 9:30 a.m. to 4:30p.m. The High Park Zoo is open from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.
Casa Loma is open from 9:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. while the Holiday Lights Tour is on from 5:30 p.m. to 10 p.m. Information and tickets are available at www.casaloma.ca.
Cineplex Odeon theatres will be open New Year’s Day.
Select outdoor skating rinks may be open. Check toronto.ca/skate for details and hours.
SHOPPING MALLS
CF Toronto Eaton Centre will be open 12 p.m. to 7 p.m. CF Markville will be open 11 a.m. to 6 p.m Pacific Mall will be open 11 a.m. to 8 p.m. Square One will be open 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. Toronto Premium Outlets will be open 9:30 a.m. to 7 p.m. Vaughan Mills will be open 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.
The B.C. Assessment Authority has updated its searchable database, which means homeowners can now see what the value of their home was as of July 1, 2023.
The authority will be releasing full details of property value changes across the province on Jan. 2.
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To check your home’s value, go to bcassessment.ca and search under the address.
According to latest data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, the average price of a home in the region increased just under five per cent between November 2022 and November 2023.
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The REBGV also reported that home sales ticked up last month, as the continued increase of newly listed properties has given prospective homebuyers in the region one of the largest selections to choose from since 2021.
Andrew Lis, the board’s director of economics and data analytics, says the region has seen balanced market conditions since the summer, which are known to produce flatter price trends.
He says with most economists forecasting mortgage rates to fall modestly in 2024, market conditions for buyers “are arguably the most favourable we’ve seen in some time in our market.”
In July 2022, the priciest home in B.C. was at 3085 Point Grey Rd., which belongs to Lululemon founder Chip Wilson and was valued at $74,089,000, an increase of 1.3 per cent over the previous year.
According to the updated B.C. Assessment website, as of July 2023, the Wilson manse was valued at $81,765,000 — an increase of 10.4 per cent. In 2021, the home was valued at $73,147,000 — that was then a rise of 9.5 per cent.
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With a major deadline to repay a pandemic era loan on the horizon, Rod Castro says he feels like he's performing a "juggling act" while trying to figure out the best way forward.
"I haven't written myself a paycheck or cashed a paycheck in about three months," he told CBC News. "Right now, all we're doing is just trying to keep every single dollar in the business."
Castro owns two restaurants in Ottawa — 10 Fourteen and Pubblico Eatery. Like many small business owners, he took out a Canada Emergency Business Account (CEBA) loan to help cover some of his costs when he was forced to close his doors during the pandemic.
The CEBA program offered interest-free loans backed by the federal government. A business could apply for up to $60,000 through the program. Any business that repays the bulk of the loan by January 18 can see up to $20,000 of the loan forgiven.
Businesses don't have to pay interest on CEBA loans right now, but the loans will start accruing five per cent interest after January 18.
With that deadline fast approaching, Castro said he isn't sure what his plans are yet.
A business can refinance their CEBA debt — essentially by taking out another loan at a higher interest rate — and still qualify for the forgivable portion.
Castro said paying the loan out of pocket would mean using up the cash his restaurants have started taking in recently from hosting holiday parties — even as he anticipates slower business in January. He said he's also not thrilled about the prospect of paying higher interest on a new loan.
"What do we do? Do we take a loan out or do we just empty the bank account? And that's where we're at right now," he said. "That's the juggling act right now."
If a business decides to refinance their CEBA loan, they have until March 28 to have part of the debt forgiven.
Dan Kelly, president of the CFIB, says the government recently clarified rules on an extended deadline for businesses looking to refinance their loans. (Sue Goodspeed/CBC)
Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), said some of the rules around refinancing weren't made clear until recently.
"There's a whole host of administrative questions around this special extension that the government didn't have answers to until [early December], which is pretty outrageous," Kelly said.
The government recently noted that businesses looking to refinance first need to apply to the financial institution that originally provided them with the CEBA loan. Businesses can then look elsewhere if they are turned down by that institution, or want to look for a better offer.
In order to qualify for the March 28 deadline, a business must apply for refinancing by January 18. After that date, five per cent interest will be charged on the CEBA loan — but a business that secures a refinanced loan by the March deadline and repays the outstanding principal can still receive partial debt forgiveness.
Nathan Hynes at his restaurant Sand And Pearl in Prince Edward County, Ont. (Submitted by Nathan Hynes)
Like Castro, Nathan Hynes, owner of the Sand and Pearl Oyster Bar in Prince Edward County, Ont., said he's still weighing his options.
"It's a huge additional expense at an inopportune time for a lot of small businesses and restaurants," Hynes said of the option of taking on a higher interest rate with a refinanced loan.
"Inflation is really hitting people [and] I think restaurants are the first thing that people sacrifice," he said. "I know that it is that way for me and I'm in the restaurant business."
Hynes said that while his bank pre-approved him for a refinanced loan, he's looking at other options, such as adding it to his mortgage.
"You just do the math and find out which one's more economical and which one you can handle," he said.
Both Castro and Hynes said businesses that don't have the option to refinance are in a bad place right now.
"That's going to be terrifying for a lot of businesses," Castro said.
Some businesses unable to refinance
Kara Deringer, owner of the Pink Gorilla restaurant in Edmonton, said she doesn't think she'll be able to refinance her CEBA loan and won't be able to pay off the loan in time to qualify for the partial forgiveness.
"I've been looking at a variety of creative options and just hitting roadblocks ... one roadblock after another," she said.
Like other business owners, Deringer said she's been feeling the pinch from inflation and higher interest rates. She's said she's taking on side jobs to pay down her CEBA and other debts.
"Small business owners, what a lot of people don't always realize is, ... we're sometimes funding our businesses out of our own pockets. So even when there's increases in personal costs, like our mortgage goes up, that reduces our ability to fund our businesses at times," she said.
Kelly said many small businesses still haven't seen their incomes return to pre-pandemic levels. He said he fears that some might start going under if they don't make the forgiveness deadline.
"That extra $10,000 or $20,000 worth of debt that they will take on could be the straw that breaks the camel's back," he said.
Hynes said he knows of other businesses "that are in a much tougher situation than I am."
"I think this is going to put a lot of people out of business and it deeply disturbs me," he said.
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland says she understands the forgiveness deadline is causing businesses some anxiety. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
In September, the government announced an 18-day extension to the forgiveness deadline. But advocacy groups such as the Canadian Federation Of Independent Business (CFIB) and Restaurants Canada have been pushing the government to extend the forgiveness deadline to the end of 2024.
In October, Canada's premiers added their voices to that call. Earlier this month, federal NDP small business critic Richard Cannings wrote to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Small Business Minister Rechie Valdez asking for an extension.
But the government seems reluctant to push the deadline back.
Freeland was asked by a reporter earlier this month if she'd reconsider the request to extend the forgiveness deadline. She said that while she knows the deadline is worrying some business owners, they have until 2026 to repay the loan in full and five per cent interest is "reasonable."
"I know people have some anxiety about it, which is completely understandable," Freeland said. "You have three years to pay it back, and the rate of interest charged over those three years is really, really reasonable."
A spokesperson for Freeland's office told CBC News that roughly a fifth of CEBA loan holders had fully repaid their loans and qualified for partial forgiveness as of the end of August. The spokesperson said the department expects more businesses will pay off their loans closer to the deadline.
Nobody's asking for a handout. Nobody's asking for a bailout. All we're asking for is time. That's that's all the ask was. And to be told no is literally very disheartening.- Rod Castro, restaurant owner
But Kelly said an extension would allow more businesses time to get back on their feet.
"I'm not suggesting the government subsidize these businesses. Businesses do fail," he said.
"But failing because they took on damage from the pandemic, because they were ordered to close down for month after month — it just seems like very short sighted policies."
Hynes said not extending the deadline is "incredibly heartless."
"Postponing it another year would not kill them," he said. "It's just another one of those things, too, where you feel kind of slighted as a small business as opposed to big business. You feel like this wouldn't happen to a bigger industry."
Deringer said a year's extension "would mean the world" to her.
"I have tears in my eyes, actually, because it really would mean a lot," she said.
Castro agrees.
"Nobody's asking for a handout," he said. "Nobody's asking for a bailout. All we're asking for is time. And to be told no is literally very disheartening."
Increasing demand for food assistance this year, coupled with a regular spike in users during the holiday season, has strained Canadian food banks this month, the directors of multiple Canadian food bank associations say.
"Christmas is always a busy time for our food banks but particularly when you add Christmas ... plus the regular need throughout the month of December has been increased, it just puts even more pressure on the food banks," said Shawna Bissell, executive director of Food Banks Alberta, a network of over 100 local organizations in the province.
Organizations across the country have reported an increase in users this year. National network Food Banks Canada counted 1,935,911 visits to food banks in March -- the latest data available -- a 32.1 per cent increase from March 2022 and a 78.5 per cent jump from March 2019.
In Ontario, visits surged 36 per cent -- to 5,888,685 -- between April 2022 and March 2023 compared to the previous year, according to a November release from Feed Ontario.
Bissell said demand is so high in her network that it's unable to build up food reserves. "As soon as that food is coming it's being distributed out to people in need," she said in an interview. "Every year we seem to be feeding more and more people."
On the other side of the country, Food Banks of Quebec executive director Martin Munger said his organization this year distributed twice the number of aid packages it handed out in 2019. It gave out tens of thousands of food baskets in the run-up to Christmas, alone, he said. Now, stocks are low.
Demand, he said, has "been high all year long, and it's also been higher during the holiday season than in previous years."
Dan Huang-Taylor, executive director of Food Banks BC, said 2023 has seen the highest level of demand for food banks since they started operating in British Columbia in the early 1980s.
Huang-Taylor said December has seen an increase in support alongside the growing demand for food banks.
"We see a lot more people giving over the course of December as well. Food and funds and other ways that people can help out, like say, volunteering, that can offset some of the increase in demand that we see," he said.
Despite the challenges, Bissell, Huang-Taylor and Munger expect to continue to be able to pull together enough funds and donations to meet demand without turning people away. But Munger hopes the government will implement more sustainable solutions to help people feed themselves rather than resort to food banks, an emergency resource that now serves one in 10 Quebecers, he said.
"It has to stop increasing," he said. "It's not tenable and food banks weren't developed to respond to demand on this scale on an ongoing basis."
The concern over sustainability is echoed by Huang-Taylor, who said support should include improvements like more affordable housing and higher rates of social assistance or other programs for people in need.
"We need to see some interventions that will reduce the strain on food banks, beyond just providing more money or more food. (We need) more preventative measures that will alleviate that strain and mean that someone doesn't have to turn to the food bank to put food on their table," he said.
- With files from Ashley Joannou in Vancouver
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 30, 2023.
As the holiday season comes to a close, it's almost time for many to return to work or school.
If you are looking for things to do for your last hurrah before getting back to the grind, here’s what is open and closed on New Year’s Day.
GROCERIES AND PHARMACIES
Unlike on Christmas Day, some grocery stores and pharmacies will be open on Jan. 1. Operations can vary depending on location, so it is best to call ahead or check the hours of your store online.
LCBOs, Beer Stores, St Lawrence Market, and Costco stores are closed.
SHOPPING CENTRES
Open: CF Markville, Toronto Eaton Centre, Vaughan Mills, Toronto Premium Outlets, Square One, Pacific Mall, Bramalea City Centre
Closed: Fairview, Sherway Gardens, Shops at Don Mills, Yorkdale Shopping Centre (except some mall restaurants), Dufferin Mall, Scarborough Town Centre, and Bayview Village
ATTRACTIONS/THEATRES
The Toronto Zoo, CN Tower, Ripley’s Aquarium, AGO, Royal Ontario Museum, Aga Khan Museum, Casa Loma, Canada’s Wonderland Winterfest, and the Ontario Science Centre will be open on Jan. 1.
All Cineplex movie theatres will also be operating.
Meanwhile, the Hockey Hall of Fame will be closed.
WHAT ELSE IS CLOSED
Banks and Canada Post offices
Toronto Public Library branches
PUBLIC TRANSIT
The TTC will run on a Sunday schedule on New Year’s Day, with the subway service starting around 8 a.m. and running every four to five minutes.
GO Transit routes will operate on a Saturday schedule.
WEATHER
The forecast for the first day of the new year is sunny skies with a high of -1 C.
It’s likely that Canada will see a slight spike in gas prices in the New Year but an expert expects the cost to eventually normalize, keeping the price of filling up stable well into 2024.
According to Michael Manjuris, Chair of Global Management Studies at the Toronto Metropolitan University, an increase to the carbon tax will cause a 2.5 to 2.6 per cent rise per-litre in the cost of gas going into 2024.
However, he says the price of crude oil is likely to lower, making the overall cost of gasoline potentially lower, too.
Why? Inventory in the United States.
“The reason we’re seeing a kind of stability, or flattening of that raw material price is because of the higher inventories in the United States currently,” Manjuris said. “And the predicted lower demand from China. So, overall, we shouldn’t see significant increases in gasoline (prices) over the course of 2024.”
In 2022 gas prices surged due to a number of geopolitical factors and at one point hit a record 214.9 cents per litre in the GTA.
Since then prices have normalized but have remained higher than the pre-2022 norm.
Earlier this month gas prices hit a multi-month low of 139.9 cents per litre in the GTA and Manjuris expects the trend to largely continue into 2024.
Manjuris said that there are a number of reasons for the more stable outlook including, believe it or not, the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Historically, election years in the United States provide a bit of stability in terms of gas prices in the U.S. --- and that’s because gas prices are an election issue, he says.
“Why the U.S. is increasing its inventory of crude oil is because they’re trying to manage the price of gasoline, “ he said.
SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR CANADA?
The main difference between Canadian and American prices is in how it’s taxed.
In Ontario, the province’s sales tax is 13 per cent and its fuel tax is nine cents a litre after the Ford government extended a temporary cut until June 30, 2024.
Manjuris said that Ontario is “not seeing is a significant increase in the demand of gasoline,” which should keep any sustained runs ups in price to a minimum.
Instead, it’s more likely that “wildcard” events cause price increases from time to time, he said. “Wildcard” events are what Manjuris calls something that is difficult to predict, like the war in Ukraine or the conflict between Israel and Gaza.
Most recently, there have been attacks in the Red Sea on commerical ships by Yemen's Houthi rebels, which have caused some oil companies to pause transit through the corridor.
"If those kinds of things continue to happen, they can affect supply at least in the short run, and when that happens, we tend to see at least a bit of a spike in the price of oil,” he said. “I’m not predicting that, not in the near term at least, but as I say, it’s a wildcard. It’s one of those things that globally, that’s unexpected.”
Warehouse stores in Canada aren't just selling large quantities of toilet paper these days — gold bars and coins and other precious metals are moving out of the realm of banking and jewellers and into their aisles.
Costco didn't respond to requests for comment from CBC News, but officials had previously told investors their gold bars would sell out within hours of being listed online.
Cultural and financial value
Richmond Hill, Ont., resident Erfan Hashempour has invested in gold and silver over the past few years by purchasing coins, because they are easier to handle and to acquire through the Royal Canadian Mint. He was surprised to see gold bars and gold coins available at his local Costco warehouse.
"Anything else, yeah, you'd expect to see it in Costco, but not really gold," he said.
Erfan Hashempour says he invests in gold for both cultural and financial reasons. (Craig Chivers/CBC)
For investors like Hashempour, gold is both a cultural and a financial investment.
"Originally, I'm from Iran. And in our culture, gold has always had significance," explained Hashempour.
He's been investing in specific precious metals to diversify his financial and investment portfolio. It's also a way to address concerns that currencies and other stock-type investments might be less stable in the long term.
"I've always gotten this advice from my parents and from family members, to invest in precious metals such as gold and silver because it's not something that depreciates [like] Iranian money over the past 40 years," he said.
A 'hedge' against instability
That's a common motivation for those investing in gold, according to precious metals dealer Jonathan Rose — they are nervous about how traditional currencies or stocks are performing, and gold has a proven track record as a stable investment.
"People who are looking for a hedge look at precious metals," said Rose, who is with Genesis Gold Group in Beverly Hills, Calif.
WATCH | Why gold bars are all that glitters for retailers like Costco:
Why Costco is now selling gold
5 days ago
Duration 1:59
Gold has long been seen as a stable investment, and at a time of global uncertainty, it’s becoming so popular that big box stores such as Costco have jumped on the bandwagon.
He adds that other factors, such as the volatility of newer cryptocurrencies and the fluctuating value of the U.S. dollar, drive people to what he calls "tangible" wealth — physical assets such as gold or silver.
"Any time there's geopolitical, international instability, people are looking for a safe haven or a flight to safety and security," he told CBC News.
To be quite honest, [gold investors] believe that the world's probably going to go to hell in a handbasket.- David Wagner, Aptus Capital Advisors
However, portfolio manager David Wagner says gold does not always hedge against financial phenomena such as inflation, and that gold investors are sometimes acting out of fear.
"They're trying to own gold if they believe that there's going to be some type of debasement of the U.S. currency," said Wagner, who is with Aptus Capital Advisors in Cincinnati, Ohio.
"To be quite honest, they believe that the world's probably going to go to hell in a handbasket."
Gold literally feels trustworthy to some
Wagner's perspective is that many gold investors put more trust in an investment they can see, feel and hold in their hands. But he also says this may give them a flawed sense of security for the same reason: physical investments can be lost or stolen.
"[If] someone comes to your house and tries to rob you, you can tell them, 'I'm safe, I own gold,'" he told CBC News.
"What are they going to probably do? They're probably going to rob you and take your gold."
That sort of concern doesn't do much to move gold investors like Hashempour.
"I feel like gold is a safe bet for investment ... whereas with stocks, things could go sideways for companies that you buy stocks from," he pointed out.
But he said he does hold many typical stock and currency investments, and isn't keeping all of his eggs — golden or not — in one basket.
Participants perform a traditional hand clap at the end of a ceremony to conclude the year's trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Friday, Dec. 29, 2023, in Tokyo.
The S&P 500 closed out 2023 with a gain of more than 24% and the Dow finished near a record high, as easing inflation, a resilient economy and the prospect of lower interest rates buoyed investors, particularly in the last two months of the year.
Stocks closed Friday with modest losses.
The S&P 500 slipped 13.52 points, or 0.3%, to 4,769.83. The benchmark index still posted a rare ninth consecutive week of gains and is just 0.6% shy of an all-time high set in January of 2022.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 20.56 points, or 0.1%, to 37,689.54 after setting a record Thursday.
The Nasdaq slipped 83.78 points, or 0.6%, to 15,011.35, but that was barely a blemish on an annual gain of more than 43%, its best performance since 2020.
For most of the year, gains in the broader market were driven largely by seven stocks -- Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla. Dubbed the Magnificent 7, they accounted for about two-thirds of the gains in the S&P 500 this year, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Nvidia lead the group with a gain of about 239%, driven by the mania surrounding artificial intelligence.
A strong rally in November and December marked a big psychological shift for investors, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, because it went beyond the big technology companies. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies jumped more than 20% over the two months and finished 2023 with a 15.1% gain after falling 21.6% in 2022.
“It was broad participation in the market that reinforced and confirmed gains for smaller company stocks that were particularly important,” Krosby said.
Investors in the U.S. came into this year bearing the bruises of sharp losses for both stocks and bonds in 2022. They expected inflation to ease further as the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates higher. The trade-off would be a weaker economy and possibly a recession. But while inflation has come down to around 3%, the economy has chugged along thanks to solid consumer spending and a healthy job market.
The stock market is now betting the Fed can achieve a “soft landing,” where the economy slows just enough to snuff out high inflation, but not so much that it falls into a recession. As a result, investors now expect the Fed to begin cutting rates as early as March.
The Fed has signaled three quarter-point cuts to its benchmark interest rate next year. That rate is currently sitting between 5.25% and 5.50%, its highest level in two decades.
Lower rates could add more fuel to the broader market’s momentum in 2024. Wall Street is forecasting stronger earnings growth for companies next year after a largely lackluster 2023, when companies wrestled with higher input and labor costs and a shift in consumer spending.
Bond market investors appeared headed for a third losing year in a row until things turned around starting in late October. Excitement about potential cuts to interest rates sent bond prices soaring and yields dropping. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which hit 5% in October, stood at 3.88% Friday, up from 3.85% on Thursday.
The yield on the two-year Treasury, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, fell to 4.25% from 4.28% from late Thursday. It also surpassed 5% in October.
Many global markets also saw solid gains this year. Indexes in France and Germany made double-digit advances, while Britain’s has climbed just under 4%.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 gained 27% in 2023, its best year in a decade as the Japanese central bank inched toward ending its longstanding ultra-lax monetary policy after inflation finally exceeded its target of about 2%.
The Shanghai Composite index lost about 3% this year and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell nearly 14%. Weakness in the property sector and in global demand for China’s exports, as well as high debt levels and wavering consumer confidence have weighed on the country’s economy and the stock market.
U.S. and international crude oil prices were relatively stable on Friday. The price of oil tumbled by more than 10% this year, defying predictions from some experts that it could cross $100 per barrel.
Despite production cuts from OPEC, a war involving energy exporter Russia and another in the Middle East, U.S. benchmark crude dropped nearly 11% in 2023, and a whopping 21% in the final three months of the year.
Increased production in the U.S., now the top oil producer in the world, as well as Canada, Brazil and Guyana offset the reduced output from OPEC. Not all OPEC members participated in the cuts and some countries like Iran and Venezuela are pumping more oil, energy analysts say.
(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street’s final session of 2023 saw stocks taking a breather near all-time highs. For bulls defying every doomsday scenario, that was just a blip for a market notching its longest weekly advance since 2004.
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The uneventful Friday before the holiday had US equities halting a five-day advance. Signs of exhaustion emerged after an over $8 trillion surge in the S&P 500 this year, with the gauge still notching its ninth straight week of gains. Traders have looked past Federal Reserve uncertainty, recession angst and geopolitical risks. And many who came into 2023 dreading all that have ended up scrambling to chase the rally.
“The market shows signs of fatigue and undoubtedly needs to consolidate,” said Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial. “As long as participation remains broad, the bullish sentiment should carry the indexes as they navigate geopolitical and domestic scenarios, and an overarching positive consensus that 2024 will be a similarly strong year.”
Fueled by the artificial-intelligence boom, stretched positioning and the “fear of missing out,” the S&P 500 soared 24% in 2023, while the Nasdaq 100 had its best year since 1999. Chipmakers saw their biggest annual gain in more than a decade, led by major AI players Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
After a year of massive swings and numerous head fakes, the US 10-year yield ended 2023 pretty close to where it began. It’s an almost farcical conclusion to 12 months of trading that saw it tumble to as low as 3.25% in the wake of March’s banking crisis — only to surpass 5% just a few months later.
Benchmark 10-year US rates rose to almost 3.9% on Friday. The dollar was little changed on the day, but posted its worst year since 2020.
Key inflation data endorsing a growing narrative that central bankers will aggressively cut rates in 2024 fueled solid gains for both equities and bonds in the last two months. The rally was also driven by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish pivot at the December policy meeting.
“The notion that the major central banks have surely done enough to quell the inflationary surge of 2022-23 is powering the rally,” said Brian Barish at Cambiar Investors LLC. “It’s not hard to imagine new things for the markets to be concerned by, such as elections, the sizable bond funding requirements of the US government, and/or any notion that inflation resurges anew. But for now, there’s not much news and not a lot of sellers.”
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said investors are probably underestimating inflation risk as markets move swiftly toward expectations for Fed easing.
“I think there’s still a risk that the market is probably underestimating: that we’re not going to quite make as much progress on inflation as people hope, and that there’s not going to be quite as much room for Fed easing as people hope,” Summers said on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin.
Equity markets have gone up so quickly that they’re highly vulnerable to a pullback if the US economy slips into even a mild recession, according to RBC Global Asset Management. Rate cuts are likely to happen in 2024, but the global economy hasn’t yet absorbed the full impact of almost two years of tightening, RBC economist Eric Lascelles said.
“What’s baked into the cake is a sizable jump in earnings, which is really only achievable in a soft-landing scenario,” Lascelles said.
The lack of anxiety is also visible in the market’s favorite volatility gauge — the VIX — which has held below 13 this week, near pre-pandemic lows and well below the five-year average.
That low reading “could be suggestive of a degree of investor complacency, even exuberance,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
To Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial, momentum remains overbought but bullish.
“While extremely overbought conditions raise the odds of a temporary pause or pullback, longer-term returns have been positive and above average based on comparable periods,” he noted.
Following a nine-week winning streak, the S&P 500 has posted average and median 12-month forward returns of 8.1% and 12.2%, respectively, Turnquist said, citing data going back to 1950. Seven out of nine occurrences produced positive results, he noted.
Elsewhere, oil posted its biggest annual drop since 2020 as war and OPEC+ production cuts failed to propel prices higher in a year dominated by supply growth outside of the grouping. Emerging-market currencies closed out their best year since 2017 as the outlook for lower interest rates in the US revived investor appetite for risk.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
The MSCI World index fell 0.3%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1039
The British pound was little changed at $1.2744
The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 141.07 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1% to $42,042.01
Ether fell 1.8% to $2,304.86
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.88%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.02%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 3.54%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $71.36 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,063.18 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
--With assistance from Joanna Ossinger, Matthew Burgess, Divya Patil, Robert Brand and Elena Popina.
Riverview father Rudy Walters is speaking out after Mastermind Toys stopped accepting gift cards effective Christmas Day — with signs posted on their storefronts only days before.
Walters said the move raises questions about the value of gift cards and about consumer protection when a company such as Mastermind heads toward bankruptcy.
"I would just like to see some more legal protection for consumers to make sure that hard earned money that's spent on gift cards can be used at any time that company is still in existence," Walters said.
The move is a part of the retailer's recent filing for creditor protection amid increasing competition, COVID-19-related disruptions and a decrease in customer spending. The decision to not honor gift cards is, according to the notices on the stores, "pursuant to the CCAA court process."
Rudy Walters says he would like to see more protections for consumers with gift cards. (Rudy Walters/Facebook)
"The first thing that came to mind is the cost of living right now is so high. Families are struggling and to get somebody a $25 or $50 gift card and then find out that it's no longer that high, that has to absolutely sting," he said.
According to CCAA court proceding documents, the company currently has "approximately $5.6 million in outstanding gift card liabilities."
Walters said the timing is also poor.
"Especially to have that deadline be Dec. 24, knowing how many families would be only opening up gift cards on the 25th," Walters said.
"How many of these gift cards would possibly still be in transit with Canada Post or another carrier?"
Mastermind Toys filed for creditor protection amid increasing competition, COVID-19 related disruptions and a decrease in customer spending. They reached a deal to sell the bulk of the business to Unity Acquisitions shortly after. (Roger Cosman/CBC News)
Fredericton lawyer Romain Viel, who works in commercial litigation, said the decision to invalidate gift cards is recommended by insolvency professionals and approved by courts to provide businesses a chance to organize their financial affairs.
"Generally, if you're in insolvency proceedings it's because the money going out is more significant than the money coming in," Viel said.
"So by freezing gift card liabilities, it gives the business an opportunity to reorganize itself financially, pay off key creditors, so that, for example, the bank doesn't come in and foreclose on its properties or take over leases," he said.
The intended result is creditors getting paid as much as they possibly can with gift card holders falling in second place. This leaves consumers with gift cards hanging in the lurch.
Few protections for gift card holders
Earlier in the month, the retailer reached a deal to sell the bulk of its business to Unity Acquisitions, a company run by Joe Mimran, Frank Rocchetti and David Lui.
While the deal is expected to close in January, in previous statements to CBC News, company spokesperson David Ryan said he could not confirm if gift cards would be accepted again once that happens.
Viel said there is nothing that says gift cards have to be respected once the deal is closed.
Romain Viel says there's nothing that says gift cards have to be respected once the deal is closed other than the potential of a further court order. (Nipun Tiwari / CBC News)
"The way it stands now is that without a further court order, the gift cards do not have to be respected," he said.
"So when the sales process is finally approved, there may be another court order" to deal specifically with gift cards.
In New Brunswick, expiration dates on gift cards are prohibited by the province's Financial and Consumer Services Commissions' Gift Card Act. There are some exceptions, such as gift cards for a specific good or service — like a gift card for a manicure, for example — promotional gift cards or cards offered for charitable services.
Are gift cards worth the risk?
Much like Walters, who himself tries to stay away from gift cards, Viel said gift cards are a risk as there is always a chance that a company could face financial challenges, especially with inflationary pressures and economic effects of COVID-19.
"It's a risk to buy gift cards," said Viel.
"There's always going to be that [chance] who you're dealing with may or may not be around in a year or two," he said.
While he thinks there is strong consumer protection in the province, Viel said without more targeted gift card legislation in bankruptcy circumstances, "gift card holders are kind of stuck."
"Obviously, if I were to find a Sears gift card in my dresser right now, I'd know that would have absolutely no value," said Walters.
But with a Mastermind gift card,"if I'm able to go there and spend my money, I should be able to go there and spend a gift card as well," he said.
Mastermind is currently slated to close 18 of its 66 stores — nine in Ontario, four in Alberta, and one each in B.C., Nova Scotia and Manitoba.
In New Brunswick, the stores in Fredericton and Saint John will close on Jan. 7 and Jan. 10 respectively.
Mastermind Toys, which has been operating since 1983, did not respond to requests for comment or interview.
U.S. and Canadian stocks were subdued on the final trading day of an upbeat year, with the benchmark S&P 500 hovering around its all-time high on growing expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early next year.
The S&P 500 is within a whisker of its all-time closing high reached in January 2022. If it ends above that level, it would confirm the index entered a bull market after it hit the bear market closing trough in October 2022.
The three main U.S. indexes were on track for both monthly and quarterly advances, as well as double-digit gains in 2023. They also eyed their ninth straight weekly gain, with the S&P set for its longest weekly winning streak since 2004.
The Dow Jones hit a record high on Thursday, while the Nasdaq is on track for its strongest yearly jump since 2003, sharply rebounding from a slump last year.
With the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes cooling the U.S. labor market as well as pressuring the economy, investors have amplified their bets of rate cuts heading into 2024.
As per CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of policymakers cutting the Fed funds target rate by 25 basis points in March stood at nearly 73%.
“Sentiment has changed dramatically over the last two months. The expectation now that the Fed is going to be cutting rates next year has put an additional bid underneath the market,” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest.
While the optimism could continue in the near term, Nolte pointed to risks of sticky inflation in 2024 that could force the Fed to keep interest rates elevated.
The year 2023 was marked by aggressive Fed rate hikes, which were finally halted in September, the U.S. banking crisis in March, an artificial intelligence stocks boom, the Israel-Hamas war, economic concerns that eventually bolstered the case for policy easing bets, among others.
The information technology is set to emerge as the top sectoral gainer in 2023, up 57.2%, benefiting from an AI exuberance and a surge in megacap stocks, while the defensive utilities sector was the worst hit with a 10.4% decline.
Nvidia and Meta Platforms were the top annual gainers on the S&P 500, eyeing around three-fold gains.
At 9:34 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 44.76 points, or 0.12%, at 37,754.86, the S&P 500 was up 2.67 points, or 0.06%, at 4,786.02, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.16 points, or 0.01%, at 15,096.29.
Among corporate movers, Uber Technologies and Lyft lost 0.5% and 2.9%, respectively, following a report that Nomura downgraded the ride-sharing platforms.
Hut 8 rose 1.3% after the bitcoin miner said the U.S. court granted approval to proceed with full mining operations plan in connection with Celsius Network bankruptcy proceedings.
Investors are winding down for the holiday season, with markets staying shut on Monday, Jan. 1, on account of New Year’s Day.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.47-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.31-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.
The S&P index recorded 10 new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 28 new highs and 14 new lows.
Canada’s main stock index was nearly unchanged in morning trade. The materials sector was the biggest decliner, under pressure from weakness in gold prices.
Skiers go up in a chairlift on Blackcomb mountain in Whistler, B.C., on Dec, 11, 2011.JONATHAN HAYWARD/The Canadian Press
British Columbia’s abnormally warm winter has left local ski resorts grappling with a lack of snow during the holiday tourism season, as resorts struggle to keep runs open.
Fewer than half of Whistler Blackcomb’s trails are open, while Vancouver’s Mount Seymour is closed entirely while it waits for better conditions.
Warmth related to the El Niño climate phenomenon this week has pushed temperatures to record highs in regions including Metro Vancouver, Greater Victoria, the Sunshine Coast and the Okanagan.
In Whistler, 120 kilometres north of Vancouver, Environment Canada was reporting no snow on the ground on Christmas Day, compared to 40 centimetres last Christmas.
On Thursday, the Whistler Blackcomb resort reported 117 of its 275 trails were open, as well as only 42 per cent of its terrain.
Warm weather has hit Metro Vancouver’s three main ski hills even harder, with Cypress and Grouse mountains operating only one or two runs each.
Mount Seymour closed entirely on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, pending more snow.
James Shalman, general manager at Apex Mountain Resort in the Okanagans, says resorts across the province are “definitely behind the 8-ball” because of the warm weather, with visitors lost during the holidays unlikely to return later in the season.
“All resorts in B.C. are very reliant on the Christmas holidays as a significant portion of their financial picture for the season,” Shalman said.
“This is not something where you can make up what you’re down during Christmas break. You won’t make that up later in the season, even if we get amazing snowfall in January, February, March.”
Apex on Thursday had about a third of its roughly 79 runs open, a stark contrast from 2022 when every run was open in the first week of December thanks to heavy snowfalls.
Shalman said Apex had significant snow-making capacity and used it to combat the lack of precipitation, but there were weeks this month where the temperatures were too warm to make snow.
“I mean, we are essentially snow farmers,” he says. “We’re Mother Nature-dependent, and we just have to take what we get.”
At Cypress Mountain in West Vancouver, management warned skiers of “thin snow coverage” for what little of the hill was open.
Several resorts have been offering discounted passes and tickets to entice skiers to visit.
“Rain’s the star of the show today,” Cypress Mountain’s update on Thursday said, noting that night skiing had been cancelled.
Environment Canada meteorologist Brian Proctor said that in addition to El Niño, a ridge of high pressure had created a “blocking pattern” across much of North America. That was preventing the warm air generated by El Niño from passing over mountains and continuing inland.
Proctor said it meant the warm air mass had lingered over B.C., unable to go east due to high pressure acting like “a wall.”
He said Environment Canada’s long-term forecast called for more seasonal temperatures to return for the first week of January, bringing potential snowfall to higher elevations in the Interior.
But Proctor said snowfall was less certain for coastal areas in coming weeks, adding that skiers and resorts should temper expectations.
“We may see potential for some snowfall,” Proctor says. “But really longer term it does look like an El Niño winter at this point in time, continuing and remaining fairly significant into the early spring.”
The Times is targeting various companies under the OpenAI umbrella, as well as Microsoft, an OpenAI partner that both uses it to power its Copilot service and helped provide the infrastructure for training the GPT Large Language Model. But the suit goes well beyond the use of copyrighted material in training, alleging that OpenAI-powered software will happily circumvent the Times' paywall and ascribe hallucinated misinformation to the Times.
The suit notes that The Times maintains a large staff that allows it to do things like dedicate reporters to a huge range of beats and engage in important investigative journalism, among other things. Because of those investments, the newspaper is often considered an authoritative source on many matters. All of that costs money, and The Times earns that by limiting access to its reporting through a robust paywall. In addition, each print edition has a copyright notification, the Times' terms of service limit the copying and use of any published material, and it can be selective about how it licenses its stories.
In addition to driving revenue, these restrictions also help it to maintain its reputation as an authoritative voice by controlling how its works appear. The suit alleges that OpenAI-developed tools undermine all of that. [...] The suit seeks nothing less than the erasure of both any GPT instances that the parties have trained using material from the Times, as well as the destruction of the datasets that were used for the training. It also asks for a permanent injunction to prevent similar conduct in the future. The Times also wants money, lots and lots of money: "statutory damages, compensatory damages, restitution, disgorgement, and any other relief that may be permitted by law or equity."
If you’re looking for some snow this rainy, grey, unseasonably warm holiday season, there is still one place you’ll find at least a little of it.
Blue Mountain Resort is able to keep a few runs open, thanks to preserving what they do have, strategically moving it around, and being poised for the “science of snow-making,” when temperatures drop, said spokesperson Tara Lovell.
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A skater braves the blade deep water to take a few laps on the skating rink at Nathan Phillips Square.
Steve Russell
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Staff do maintenance on the main chair lift at Blue Mountain Ski Resort in Collingwood.
