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Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam speaks virtually as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looks on during a news conference to update Canadians on the COVID-19 pandemic, in Ottawa on May 7, 2021.
Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
The federal public-health agency is urging provinces and territories to stay the course on restrictions until three-quarters of the eligible population has a first shot and 20 per cent have a second dose, a benchmark some provinces are shirking as they chart their reopenings.
New modelling released by the agency on Friday shows the steady decline in cases and severe outcomes of COVID-19 has continued, although Manitoba remains an outlier. But it also comes with a warning that reopening too soon, as was done after the peak of the second wave this past winter, could lead to another surge in cases.
“The good news is that nationally we expect the third wave to continue to decline,” Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam said Friday, but she added that downward trend is only guaranteed to hold if current measures are kept in place and people don’t increase their contacts.
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“While this forecast is very encouraging, it reaffirms that now is not the time to relax our measures. If measures are relaxed, increasing the number of community-wide in-person contacts, resurgence is likely,” Dr. Tam said as she released new COVID-19 modelling.
If the current level of contact between people remains unchanged, the modelling shows daily new case counts will drop below the trough between the second and third wave. But that trend will reverse if contacts increase, Dr. Tam noted, pointing to the example of the United Kingdom as the route Canada should try and follow. In Britain, the government waited to reopen until the country “got to the bottom of their very big wave,” she said.
Canada isn’t there yet, Dr. Tam said. Canada’s daily case count is down by almost two-thirds from its peak and case counts are still much higher than the low levels seen last summer. At the peak of the third wave in April, daily case counts hit more than 9,500, according to The Globe and Mail’s tracking – by Friday, that number was down to 3,196.
Dr. Tam acknowledged that there are regional differences in the epidemic. But she stressed that increased interactions should be limited to outdoor spaces, even once Canada hits 75-per-cent first-dose coverage and 20-per-cent second-dose coverage. Once Canada hits that mark, “the most restrictive public-health measures, such as lockdowns, may be lifted this summer,” Dr. Tam said.
“Though we will still need to maintain individual precautions such as masking and spacing around non-household members, we’ll be able to gather in small groups outdoors, dine on restaurant patios and safely enjoy outdoor activities.”
The federal government does not have jurisdiction over physical-distancing rules, and several provinces are not heeding the federal agency’s advice. On top of that, Alberta, B.C. and Saskatchewan have not factored second-dose coverage into their reopening plans at all.
Already on Tuesday, B.C. allowed indoor gatherings and indoor dining to restart. As of Friday, 63 per cent of those 12 and older had received at least one vaccine dose. In Saskatchewan, indoor dining will restart on Sunday. On Friday, the province said 64 per cent of people 18 and older have received at least one shot.
And Quebec, with 58 per cent of its population already vaccinated, is allowing 2,500 people to attend Saturday’s NHL playoff game in person to watch the Montreal Canadiens play the Toronto Maple Leafs. In a media release, the Canadiens said fans older than 5 will wear masks at the event.
Asked about the more optimistic approach taken by some premiers, Dr. Tam urged provinces to tread cautiously.
“I am advocating a pretty precautionary approach because we’ve seen on that same curve what happened when we started relaxing measures on that second wave on the way down,” she told reporters Friday.
“We’ve had a few experiences in the past that have led us to wanting to be more precautionary. Slowly does it, in a phased way, is recommended.”
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney on Wednesday introduced a phased plan that culminates in lifting all COVID-19 measures – including a provincewide mask mandate, limits on indoor and outdoor gatherings and constraints on businesses – two weeks after 70 per cent of eligible Albertans receive at least one dose of vaccine.
Ontario also plans to allow indoor activities before it reaches the federal vaccination threshold, but it comes much closer to that target than other provinces. Premier Doug Ford’s plan expands indoor gatherings once the province hits 70-per-cent first-dose coverage and 20-per-cent second-dose coverage.
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2021-05-29 00:33:47Z
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