OTTAWA -- A member of Ontario's COVID-19 Science Advisory Table warns Ottawa will consistently see more days with triple-digit increases in COVID-19 cases in the next week or so as COVID-19 transmission continues to rise in the community.
And senior scientist at the Ottawa Hospital Dr. Doug Manuel suggests the Red-Control zone restrictions are "not going to hold" the transmission rates in Ottawa.
Ottawa moved into the Red-Control level of Ontario's COVID-19 reopening framework on Friday, following a spike in COVID-19 cases.
Ottawa's COVID-19 incidence rate increased from 33.8 cases per 100,000 on Feb. 28 to 50 cases on March 19.
"I think we're at an interesting period. In Ottawa, we're doing a bit better than other places that have been increasing more quickly," said Dr. Manuel during an interview on CTV News at Six with anchor Stefan Keyes.
"In Ottawa, in the short-term we're looking at increasing cases; we'll probably be in the triple digits more consistently in a week or so, deaths are predicted to go down and hospitalizations over the short-term are going to stay flat."
Ottawa Public Health reported 107 new cases of COVID-19 on Saturday and 86 new cases on Sunday. The 107 new cases of novel coronavirus in Ottawa on Saturday was the highest one-day increase since Jan. 21.
"So, the question after that is what's going to influence it?" said Dr. Manuel about the COVID-19 transmission in the community.
"We've got the two big factors: the variants of concern is going to increase cases for a while and then we have the vaccine, which is going to help the hospitalizations and deaths."
Ottawa is in the Red-Control zone after spending one month in the Orange-Restrict level.
"Currently, the cases would likely go up with the level of restrictions that we've got," said Dr. Manuel, when asked if Ottawa needs to go into lockdown to control the spread of virus.
Manuel notes there is no set criteria for the province to move a region into the Gray-Lockdown level, which looks at increasing weekly case incidence and/or test positivity and outbreaks among vulnerable populations.
"We're definitely not going back to orange for a while."
LOCKDOWN NEEDED IN OTTAWA?
Speaking on Newstalk 580 CFRA Sunday morning with host Andrew Pinsent, Dr. Manuel said the likelihood of Ottawa moving into Gray-Lockdown is "pretty high."
"It's going up. I think the question is now moving into red zone, are we going to flatten that out?" said Dr. Manuel about COVID-19 transmission in Ottawa.
Dr. Manuel says while Ottawa's COVID-19 rates have been increasing slower than other areas of Ontario, transmission could rise due to the variants of concern and the level of restrictions.
"I'm concerned that red is not going to hold us, especially with the new variants and that we're going to continue to increase," said Dr. Manuel.
"When we get into these sorts of triple digits (daily case increases), public health has a hard time keeping up with all the cases, so there starts to be a lag time in their contact tracing."
Dr. Manuel says looking at the recent changes to restaurant capacity in the Red-Control zone, he is concerned the measures won't "hold" the COVID-19 rates in Ottawa. Ontario's new restrictions for bars and restaurants in the Red-Control zone is 50 per cent capacity of an establishment, up to a maximum of 50 people.
Pinsent asked if he anticipates a move into lockdown.
"I would say the likelihood is pretty high, or it's definitely on my radar. When? I think we're going to see how much the red is going to hold us, or we're just going to blow right through it," said Manuel.
"I don't think it's going to hold us. I think we're probably going to continue on the same rate, if not higher. The math would say that we're going to accelerate with the variants and just having more people and losing our ability to control."
Dr. Manuel notes the variants of concern create a "different ballgame" with COVID-19 than in the fall.
Approximately 50 per cent of all new cases of COVID-19 in Ottawa involve a variant of concern.
Dr. Manuel says there are two factors pushing back against COVID-19 and the variants of concern this spring; more people gathering outside in the warm weather and we're getting vaccinated with the COVID-19 doses.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMigAFodHRwczovL290dGF3YS5jdHZuZXdzLmNhL2NvdmlkLTE5LWNhc2VzLWxpa2VseS10by1nby11cC11bmRlci1jdXJyZW50LXJlZC16b25lLXJlc3RyaWN0aW9ucy1pbi1vdHRhd2Etc2NpZW50aXN0LXdhcm5zLTEuNTM1NjQ4MdIBAA?oc=5
2021-03-21 23:36:00Z
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