Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today - The Globe and Mail

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Equities

TSX futures gained early Monday while U.S. markets are closed for the July 4 holiday. Major European markets were positive in early trading.

On Friday, Wall Street’s three key indexes advanced as the new quarter got underway with the Nasdaq finishing up 0.9 per cent while the S&P 500 rose 1.06 per cent. The Dow finished the session up 1.05 per cent. Canadian markets were closed on Friday.

Canada’s main stock index opened higher Monday while U.S. indexes were closed for the July 4 holiday.

At 9:30 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 92.78 points, or 0.49%, at 18,954.14.

Later Monday morning, Canadian investors will get the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.

“Key will be the extent to which measures of inflation expectations rise,” Derek Holt, vice-president and head of capital markets economics with Bank of Nova Scotia, said.

“The surveys will be somewhat stale on arrival as the consumer survey period was over the first half of May and the business survey period was over the back half of May. The BoC then goes into blackout ahead of the July 13th decision and communications.”

Later in the week, U.S. markets will get the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, with traders looking for hints about how hawkish the central bank will be in coming rate decisions after hiking rates by 75 basis points last month.

Both Canadian and U.S. investors will get June jobs reports on Friday.

Mr. Holt said he expects to see a gain in Canadian hiring of about 20,000 positions for the month with the unemployment rate holding at 5.1 per cent.

“Restrictions continued to rapidly ease into the June Labour Force Survey reference week that typically includes the 15th of each month,” he said. “They had tightened more than in the U.S. when Omicron first hit and are now looking easier than in the U.S. This continues to drive regional mobility readings higher.”

The U.S. report, he said, is likely to show an increase of 300,000 jobs as the pace of job gains ebbs.

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.91 per cent by midday. Britain’s FTSE 100 added 1.17 per cent. Germany’s DAX advanced 0.22 per cent while France’s CAC 40 was up 0.82 per cent.

In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed down 0.13 per cent. Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.84 per cent.

Commodities

Crude prices turned higher with tight supply helping offset worries about the potential for a global recession.

The day range on Brent is US$110.40 to US$112.35. The range on West Texas Intermediate is US$107.25 to US$109.06. Both benchmarks were down in the early premarket period before turning positive.

“JP Morgan warns that crude prices could hit US$380 per barrel, if Russia cuts output as a response to Westerns sanctions and mounting tensions,” Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said in an early note. “Yet, the global demand could hardly keep up, if the price of a barrel got multiplied by two or, by four from the actual levels.”

“Looking at the price dynamics, it’s more likely we see the barrel of crude fall below US$100 than rise above US$200,” she said.

In other commodities, gold prices were lower early Monday, hit a stronger U.S. dollar.

Spot gold was down 0.2 per cent at US$1,807.48 per ounce in uneven trading. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4 per cent to US$1,808.80.

Currencies

The Canadian dollar edged higher while its U.S. counterpart slipped but still held near recent highs as investors sought safer holdings amid continued fears of a global recession.

The day range on the loonie is 77.49 US cents to 77.75 US cents.

Canadian markets get the Bank of Canada’s business outlook survey and consumer expectations survey just after Monday’s open.

“Looking ahead to today’s releases, consumer and business inflation expectations will be closely monitored in the reports after the Q1 data pushed the Bank of Canada towards hiking rates in 50-basis-point increments,” Jay Zhao-Murray, FX market analyst with Monex Canada, said.

“With just 71 basis points priced in for the BoC’s July 13th meeting, we think today’s data could firm expectations that the BoC will follow the Fed in hiking by 75 basis points. Should medium-term inflation expectations continue to de-anchor from the BoC’s 2% target, today’s data may even render Friday’s jobs report futile.”

On world markets, the U.S. dollar index eased 0.15% to 104.9, not far below last month’s two-decade high of 105.790, according to figures from Reuters.

The euro was little changed at US$1.042, not far from May’s five-year low of US$1.0349.

The British pound hit a two-week low of US$1.1976 on Friday and last bought $1.21170, Reuters reported.

More company news

Cathedral Energy Services Ltd. has signed a deal to buy the directional drilling services business of Altitude Energy Partners LLC in an agreement it valued at about US$100-million in cash and shares in a bid to grow its U.S. business. Altitude, a portfolio company of Black Bay Energy Capital LLC, has significant operations in Texas, most prominently in the Permian Basin.

Economic news

U.S. markets closed for holiday.

(930 am ET) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Canada for June.

(1030 am ET) Bank of Canada second quarter Business Outlook Survey of Consumer Expectations

With Reuters and The Canadian Press

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2022-07-04 09:35:55Z
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