S&P 500 set to carve out its first intraday record since May as Fed abandons ‘patience’ - MarketWatch

• S&P 500 index will mark an intraday high at the open, its first since May 1
• The Dow is on track to open up, at around its highest level since its Oct. 3 all-time high
• Gold surges 2.6% to $1,384.50 an ounce, hitting a 5-year high
• Enterprise-software messaging company Slack Technologies is slated to list on the NYSE

U.S. stock indexes Thursday were set to extend gains to a fourth straight day near records as the Federal Reserve signaled that policy easing may be forthcoming to sustain the economy.

How are benchmarks faring?

Stock futures were surging early Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average YMU19, +0.91% up 234 points, or 0.8%, at 27,769, those for the S&P 500 index ESU19, +1.01% gaining 28.60 points, or 1%, at 2,962.25, while Nasdaq-100 futures NQU19, +1.47% were surging 109 points, or 1.4%, at 7,811.50.

If equity-futures gains hold, the Dow DJIA, +0.15% would hit its highest level since Oct. 3 when the blue-chip benchmark put in a record at 26,828.39, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.30% would trade above an intraday record last hit on May 1 at 2,954.13, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.42% sits about 1% short of its May 3 all-time peak.

What’s driving the market?

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday strongly implied that the central bank would cut benchmark interest rates, currently at a range of 2.25%-2.50%, in the coming weeks if the economic outlook buffeted by U.S.-China trade tensions doesn’t show signs of improvement.

“The case for somewhat more accommodative policy has strengthened,” Powell said at a news conference on Wednesday to discuss the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee’s highly anticipated decision. Policy makers kept rates unchanged as expected but removed the word “patient” from its updated policy statement, suggesting that it is ready to act soon.

Although markets have been widely anticipating that Powell & Co. would respond to growing signs of stress in the economy, the central bank’s posture on looser monetary policy was seen as providing a strong case for the continued rise in stocks despite concerns about lurking economic problems.

The Fed remained mostly optimistic about the outlook, but said inflationary pressures have receded, compelling it to lower its forecast for PCE inflation in 2019 to 1.5% from 1.8%, below its 2% target. At the same time, it left its gross domestic product estimate at 2.1%.

Curiously low inflation has been often cited by FOMC members as one of the key reasons for its doubts about its monetary policy path. The Fed next meets July 30-31, while President Donald Trump is expected to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the coming Group of 20 meeting of well-developed nations in Japan, where a detente on trade policy could be reached.

See: Recap of Fed decision and Powell press conference

Dovish rhetoric from central-bank policy makers across the globe has helped to send commodity prices, and particularly gold, rocketing higher, with heightened expectation that interest rates, which can undercut appetite for bullion, will could be lowered.

Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda and the Bank of England on Thursday, joined the chorus of bankers including Powell and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, signaling a readiness to increase stimulus should global risks at least partly spurred by trade, worsen.

The BOE said rising tariff tensions are darkening the outlook for the global economy. Kuroda said “we’ll of course consider expanding stimulus without hesitation,” he told a news conference, according to Reuters.

Which data are in focus?

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in June fell to just 0.3 after registering a four-month high of 16.6 in the prior month. Any reading above zero indicates improving conditions. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected an 8 reading.

Initial jobless claims, a rough way to measure layoffs, fell by 6,000 to 216,000 in the seven days ended June 15, the government said Thursday.

What are strategists saying?

“The indices are set to open higher along with soaring gold and oil prices. Mounting geopolitical tensions continue to ignite a rush to safety while hopes of a rate cut dominate the equity markets,” Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities.

“Powell’s press conference [on Wednesday] showed some reluctance, but it seems markets are certain the Fed will cut in July. If data deterioration is worst than expected, calls for a 50-basis cut at the July meeting will grow in the coming weeks,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda in a daily research note.

Which stocks are in focus

Slack Technologies Inc. WORK, +0.00% is set to make its debut on the New York Stock Exchange in a highly anticipated direct listing of the enterprise software company. Here’s what you should know.

How are other assets trading?

Before the U.S. markets opened Wednesday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +1.23% rose 1.2% and China’s Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +2.38% rallied by 2.4%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 NIK, +0.60% meanwhile, closed up 0.6%, while in Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +0.70% traded 0.6% higher.

Gold futures GCQ19, +2.94% meanwhile, surged 2.6%, touching its highest level since 2013 at $1,384.50 an ounce, while the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, -1.02% touched a yield below 2%, while the U.S. dollar, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.51% fell 0.5% to 96.67.

Crude-oil prices CLU19, +4.35%  surged amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Iran says it shot down a U.S. drone in its airspace.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-poised-to-surge-to-highest-level-in-812-months-gold-hits-5-year-high-as-fed-signals-cuts-2019-06-20

2019-06-20 13:09:00Z
52780317910922