Can OPEC Keep Oil Prices Above $90 - OilPrice.com

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By Tom Kool - Sep 06, 2022, 2:00 PM CDT

Brent crude held above $90 per barrel at the beginning of the week after OPEC+ announced a tiny, symbolic output cut.

Chart of the Week

Demise of Gas Paves the Way for Reenergized Coal Sector

- Coal prices across all continents have soared to all-time highs this week, almost triple of what it was a year ago, as uncertainty over gas flows in Europe and stagnant LNG volumes favor “king coal”.

- Asia’s benchmark contract, the ICE Newcastle futures, jumped to $463.75 per metric ton on Monday, whilst spot physical coal loaded in Australia was priced only a $30/mt lower.

- Oddly enough, the coal price rally might still see further upside as La Nina weather events might impact the supply side, especially with rainfall-driven weather disruptions in Australia.

- In Europe, the rebound in gas prices triggered by Gazprom’s halting of Nord Stream-1 flows, with front-month spot prices around $75/mmBtu, has pushed the 2023 yearly API2 coal contract to $340/mt.

Market Movers

- EQT Corp. (NYSE:EQT), the largest dedicated gas producer in the US, is nearing a deal with peer firm THQ Appalachia, a producer of some 760 mcf per day, for around $4 billion.

- U.S. royalty company Sitio Royalties (NYSE:STR) said it would buy oil and gas rights firm Brigham Minerals (NYSE:MNRL) for $4.8 billion in an all-stock deal, expected to close by Q1 2023.

- Germany’s largest gas importer Uniper (ETR:UN01) signed a 16-year deal with Australian LNG exporter Woodside (ASX:WDS) for the supply of 1 bcm of liquefied natural gas, biting into volumes traditionally going to Asia. 

Tuesday, September 06, 2022

OPEC+ is reimagining its role in the oil markets and even though its promise of a tiny cut certainly does not impress outright, one should never underestimate the geopolitical symbolism of its actions. By signaling that the oil group is eager to make swift changes in case geopolitical realities change (ehm, Iran), the lower October production target is also a mirror into the Middle Eastern psyche – as oil started moving closer to the fiscal breakeven levels of Saudi Arabia or Iraq, maintaining crude prices within the $90-100 per barrel bandwidth will remain a top item on the OPEC+ agenda.

OPEC+ Brings End to Era of Production Hikes. OPEC+ agreed to cut collective output by 100,000 b/d, reversing the oil group’s decision from last month, marking the first month in more than two years when they curb production targets amidst unprecedented price volatility.

Iran Talks ‘In Danger’ Again. The EU’s chief negotiator in the nuclear talks with Iran, Josep Borrell, stated that the negotiations are in danger as Washington and Tehran started diverging on several contested points, most notably guarantees that the US cannot withdraw unilaterally again from the JCPOA.

EU Wants to Cap Russian Pipeline Gas Prices. The European Commission is looking into ways to cap the price of Russian pipeline gas that has been intermittently exported by Gazprom (MCX:GAZP), though some countries remain wary of such measures, fearing a total cut off in retaliation.

New UK Prime Minister Faces $150 Billion Dilemma. Liz Truss, the new prime minister of the United Kingdom, is considering ways to freeze households’ gas and electricity bills at the current maximum level of $2,281, avoiding another 80% hike set to materialize this October, in a $150 billion move.

PEMEX’s Methane Leaks Show No Sign of Abating. Merely two months after Mexican scientists discovered huge methane leaks at PEMEX’s offshore fields in Mexico, a huge methane plume was seen at the Ku-Maloob-Zaap cluster throughout August, stoking concerns of dilapidated infrastructure.

Conoco Pioneering US Hydrogen Gas Production. U.S. oil major ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) will be developing a hydrogen gas plant to be jointly managed with Japan’s JERA, with the latter providing natural gas for the plant (to be located along the Gulf Coast) as well as running its CCS facility.

Heat Waves Put California Power Prices Under Pressure. Amidst a prolonged heat wave, electricity prices in California have risen to their highest since the state’s electric grid operator imposed rotating outages in August 2020, with SP-15 power prices trading above $500 per MWh.

Indonesia Braces for Widespread Fuel Protests. Seeking to ease budget pressures coming from a bloated $44 billion set of energy subsidies, Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo raised subsidized fuel prices by 30%, with analysts expecting widespread protests and disruption in its wake.

Canada Refinery Blast Jeopardizes Revamp. A huge explosion at the idled 140,000 b/d Come by Chance refinery in Canada’s Newfoundland and Labrador province injured eight people, just as the refinery is undergoing a transformation into a biofuel producer focusing on SAF and renewable diesel.

Shell and Exxon Put Up Europe’s Largest Gas Field for Sale. The UK’s Shell (LON:SHEL) and U.S. major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) decided to sell their jointly owned NAM venture in the Netherlands, amongst others operator of the supergiant Groningen gas field that is mandated to shut (by government decree) in 2024.

Markets Rejoice at Chile Rejecting New Constitution Bill. Chile’s stock market and Chile-focused firms soared on Monday after citizens of the country rejected the new constitution proposed by President Gabriel Boric, easing fears that Chile’s left turn might jeopardize the interests of metal companies.  

U.S. to Announce Blending Mandates in November. With the refining industry lacking any long-term vision of biofuel blending mandates amidst constant delays, the Biden Administration is set to announce a three-year blending target for 2023-2025 this November.  

Hitting Bottom, Iron Ore Gradually Bounces Back. With Chinese benchmark Dalian iron ore prices slumping to a contract low of 92 per metric ton, iron ore futures have rebounded this week to 100/mt despite ongoing COVID restrictions in China with 33 cities under some form of lockdown.  

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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Tom Kool

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2022-09-06 19:00:00Z
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Average non-mortgage debt tops $21,000: Equifax Canada - BNN Bloomberg

The amount of non-mortgage debt owed by Canadians is rising, boosted by new lending and higher spending linked to inflation, according to a new report by Equifax Canada.

The report out Tuesday by the credit rating agency said the average non-mortgage debt per consumer was $21,128 in the second quarter, up 2.4 per cent compared with a year earlier.

Rebecca Oakes, vice-president of advanced analytics at Equifax Canada, said financial stress is becoming a very real thing for many more Canadians.

"Its impact on consumer credit is not just visible in day-to-day credit card spending, but also in other non-mortgage debt like auto loans and lines of credit, where balances are on the rise," Oakes said in a statement.

Equifax said credit card balances rose to the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2019 and the average credit limit on new cards is over $5,800, the highest it has been in the last seven years.

Oakes said credit card spending is reaching historically high levels.

"High consumer demand for credit cards means a competitive marketplace for lenders. As a result, the credit limits being offered on new cards are much higher than we've seen in previous periods," Oakes added.

Overall, Equifax said total non-mortgage debt rose to $591.4 billion, up 5.2 per cent from a year ago, while total consumer debt rose to $2.32 trillion in the second quarter, up 8.2 per cent compared with the same quarter last year.

The report noted new mortgage volume fell by 16.4 per cent in the second quarter, compared with the same period last year, amid a slightly cooler housing market in recent months.

However, despite a cool-down in the housing market, the average loan amount for first-time homebuyers only dropped 0.5 per cent in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, with the average monthly payments increasing by 10 per cent.

"The cooling housing market in Canada should not be mistaken for increasing affordability," Oakes said.

"Affordability depends not just on home prices, but also on monthly payment obligations for a mortgage. Higher interest rates coupled with high inflation can really stretch a consumer’s monthly expenditure, while many could find it difficult to qualify for a mortgage."

The report said the average loan amount for new mortgages in Canada was over $367,000, with average loans for first-time homebuyers at over $430,000.

Equifax also said consumer insolvency rose to the highest levels since the start of the pandemic, mostly driven by an increase in consumer proposals.

The report comes as economists anticipate a supersized interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, as the central bank works to combat inflation

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2022-09-06 18:23:38Z
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Oil prices jump as OPEC+ agrees to small output cut - Al Jazeera English

OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia said demand for oil has been cooling for several months.

Oil prices rose about 3 percent on Monday, as OPEC+ members agreed to a small production cut of 100,000 barrels per day to bolster prices.

Brent crude futures for November delivery settled $2.72 higher at $95.74 a barrel, a 2.92 percent gain.

Prices had climbed nearly $4 earlier in the session, but were tamed by comments from the White House that United States President Joe Biden was committed to taking all steps necessary to shore up energy supplies and lower prices.

US crude rose $2 to $88.85 per barrel, a 2.3 percent rise after a 0.3 percent gain in the previous session, in thin volumes during the US Labor Day holiday.

The 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) reduction by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, amounts to only 0.1 percent of global demand. The group also agreed they could meet any time to adjust production before the next scheduled meeting on October 5.

“It’s the symbolic message the group wants to send to the markets more so than anything,” said Oanda analyst Craig Erlam, adding that the 100,000 bpd raise last month by OPEC+ was not seen as a big deal.

“What we’ve probably seen from the markets was pricing in most of the worst-case scenario,” Erlam added.

Top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia last month flagged the possibility of output cuts to address what it sees as exaggerated oil price declines.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said expectations of weaker global economic growth were behind a decision by Moscow and its OPEC allies to cut oil output.

Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said the country would most likely reduce its oil production by about 2 percent this year, TASS news agency reported.

“The bigger picture is that OPEC+ is producing well below its output target and this looks unlikely to change given that Angola and Nigeria, in particular, appear unable to return to pre-pandemic levels of production,” Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, said.

Oil prices have fallen in the past three months from multiyear highs hit in March, pressured by concerns that interest rate increases and COVID-19 curbs in parts of China could slow global economic growth and dent oil demand.

Lockdown measures in China’s southern technology hub of Shenzhen eased on Monday as new infections showed signs of stabilising, though the city remains on high vigilance.

Meanwhile, talks to revive the West’s 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, potentially providing a supply boost from Iranian crude’s return to the market, have hit a new snag. The White House on Friday rejected Iran’s call for a deal to be linked with the closure of investigations by the UN nuclear watchdog, a Western diplomat said.

Iran’s minister of petroleum said the global energy market needs an increase in the supply of oil from Iran.

Use of oil in power generation is also expected to pick up, analysts said, as Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom on Friday said it would stop pumping gas via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline due to a fault.

The International Energy Agency last month raised its oil demand forecast for the year, partly because it expects gas-to-oil switching in some countries due to record natural gas and electricity prices.

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2022-09-05 18:39:17Z
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OPEC+ to Curb Production by 100000 Barrels a Day - Bloomberg Markets and Finance

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2022-09-05 13:52:23Z
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Former Tata Sons chair Cyrus Mistry dies in road accident in India - The Globe and Mail

Former chairman of Indian conglomerate Tata Sons, Cyrus Mistry, in Mumbai on June 27, 2014. He died in a road accident on Sept. 4, at age 54.© Stringer India / Reuters

Cyrus Mistry, the 54-year-old former chairman of Indian conglomerate Tata Sons, died in a road accident near financial capital Mumbai on Sunday, Indian police said.

Mr. Mistry was ousted as chairman of Tata Sons, the holding company of the US$300-billion salt-to-software Tata conglomerate, in a boardroom coup in 2016, sparking a long-drawn-out legal tussle on which India’s top court eventually ruled in Tata Group’s favour.

The accident took place in Palghar, located about 100 kilometres north of Mumbai, on Sunday afternoon. Mr. Mistry was travelling to Mumbai from Gujarat with three others, the top police official in Palghar district, said.

A senior Mumbai police official said the car in which Mr. Mistry was travelling had rammed into a divider, and that he had died at the accident site.

Several prominent politicians and industrialists tweeted their condolences after news of Mr. Mistry’s passing was reported. Prime Minister Narendra Modi called Mr. Mistry’s demise untimely and shocking.

“He was a promising business leader who believed in India’s economic prowess. His passing away is a big loss to the world of commerce and industry,” Mr. Modi tweeted.

Mr. Mistry’s family and Tata Sons did not immediately respond to a request seeking comment.

Tata Consultancy Services, in which Tata Sons owns a majority stake, said it was mourning the untimely demise of its former chairman, adding that the company was offering its “deepest condolences and prayers” to his family and friends.

“He was a warm, friendly, and congenial person who built a strong relationship with the TCS family during his time as the chairman of the company,” TCS said in a statement.

Mr. Mistry was the sixth chairman of the Tata group, a conglomerate started more than 150 years ago, and the second not named Tata. He was the brother-in-law of Noel Tata, half-brother of Mr. Mistry’s predecessor as chair, Ratan Tata.

Mr. Mistry’s grandfather first bought shares in Tata Sons in the 1930s. The Shapoorji Pallonji Group, founded by Mr. Mistry’s father, currently holds a near 18-per-cent stake, making it the largest single shareholder in a firm mostly controlled by trusts.

The decades-long relationship between SP Group, one of the country’s largest construction firms, and Tata Group was strained after his sacking, and SP Group has since been looking to “separate its interests” from Tata Sons.

Fund managers Reuters spoke to at the time of Mr. Mistry’s appointment described him as little-known in business circles.

A graduate in civil engineering from London’s Imperial College and in management from the London Business School, Mr. Mistry described himself as a voracious reader of business books and golfer, and shared his family’s love of horses.

SP Group did not immediately respond to Reuters requests seeking comment on Mr. Mistry’s death.

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Former Tata Sons head Cyrus Mistry dies in car crash near Mumbai - The Tribune India

PTI

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, September 4

Sandeep Dikshit

Cyrus Mistry, a publicly-shy tycoon who once headed the Tata Group, died on Sunday afternoon in a road accident. The car he was traveling in apparently hit a culvert-cum-divider on a highway in Palghar district of Maharashtra, adjacent to Mumbai.  A statutory probe has been ordered in the case.

“The accident took place around 3.15 pm, when Mistry was travelling to Mumbai from Ahmedabad. The accident took place on a bridge over the Surya River. It seems like an accident,’’ said a senior Palghar district police official.

When he died Cyrus, 54, was battling two disappointments.  His larger-than-life father Pallonji Shapoorji Mistry, who it is said, once called the shots at Tata House, passed away just over two months back in July. In May, the Supreme Court dismissed his final petition against his removal as the Tata Sons Chairman in 2016.

NCP leader Supriya Sule, one of the few who stood by him during those tumultuous boardroom battles and backroom intrigues, was the first to mourn his death. “Devastating News. My Brother Cyrus Mistry passed away. Can’t believe it,’’ she tweeted.

Devastating News My Brother Cyrus Mistry passed away. Can’t believe it.

Rest in Peace Cyrus. pic.twitter.com/YEz7VDkWCY

— Supriya Sule (@supriya_sule) September 4, 2022

Soon, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, political leaders and businesspeople tweeted their condolences. “The untimely demise of Cyrus Mistry is shocking. He was a promising business leader who believed in India’s economic prowess. His passing away is a big loss to the world of commerce and industry. Condolences to his family and friends. May his soul rest in peace,’’ said the PM.

The untimely demise of Shri Cyrus Mistry is shocking. He was a promising business leader who believed in India’s economic prowess. His passing away is a big loss to the world of commerce and industry. Condolences to his family and friends. May his soul rest in peace.

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) September 4, 2022

Little was known about Cyrus till a search committee decided he was best placed to fill the shoes of Ratan Tata when latter reached the 75-year cap in 2012. The rule was once wielded to retire Tata Steel chief Russi Mod who did not have the Tata surname and could never head Tata Sons. But Mistry became the first who was not a Tata, pipping Ratan’s half-brother Noel Tata who is married to his sister.

Not much was known about him after he became the Tata Group chief either as Cyrus did not give any interview. As he was nearing his fourth year as Tata Group chief, intrigues built up in the corridors of Bombay House. Amidst rumours that the last nail was his plan to shut down the Nano car plant a year before the Gujarat elections in 2017, the Tata Board removed him by a majority decision.

If Cyrus’ father diversified their family firm’s construction business into specialty areas such as making the outer cladding of nuclear power units, his grandfather’s astute investments in Tata Sons in the 1930s saw their holding grow to 18.4 per cent, making the family the biggest single shareholder of the Tata group.

While Cyrus went back to his family businesses that were largely being helmed by his elder brother, he had a brief moment of vindication in 2019 when the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal reinstated him as the Chairperson for Tata Sons. But the Supreme Court reversed the decision and then rejected his review petition in May this year.

#cyrus mistry

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COVID-19 changed office work. Here's what the 'next normal' looks like as people return - CBC News

Deloitte Canada would have moved into a newly opened Vancouver office sooner, if it wasn't for the pandemic.

But the delay gave the company some time to consider how that space should be used.

"We were able to really think about this 'next normal,'" said Jayara Darras, the company's culture and people leader, which at Deloitte involves supporting hybrid working arrangements.

For now, about one-fifth of Deloitte's regional workforce of 1,500 people is in the building on a typical workday.

Deloitte Canada's local staff moved into the Deloitte Summit tower in Vancouver in June, a process that the company's culture and people leader says was delayed by the pandemic. But the delay gave the company time to think about how it wanted to use the space there. (Ben Nelms/CBC)

"We're hitting about 275, 300 people [on a given day]," Darras said, noting fewer people choose to come in on Mondays and Fridays.

She predicts that number to rise this fall, but also doesn't expect Deloitte to mandate a return.

The pandemic upended long-entrenched office routines, prompting organizations to rethink how work can be done and embrace more flexible arrangements.

More people are being encouraged to physically return to work this fall, but it doesn't appear the work world will revert to its pre-pandemic state. 

WATCH | Demand for flexibility, even in returning to the office:  

Workers want flexibility with return-to-office plans

6 months ago

Duration 5:13

With pandemic restrictions easing across Canada, companies are preparing to welcome employees back into the office. But many are pushing back and asking for flexible work arrangements, while others are looking forward to going into the office again.

"Work from home is clearly here to stay," Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University economics professor, who has been studying the impact of the widening adoption of more flexible work, said via email.

Tentative start of a climb?

Colliers Canada manages more than 60 million square feet of commercial real estate across the country — with office space accounting for more than half of that footprint.

Amy Vuong, vice-president of strategy of real estate management services for Colliers Canada, says many companies began seeing people return to the office on a voluntary basis during the spring — and her organization is hearing that some companies are now making that in-the-office presence mandatory. (Submitted by Amy Vuong)

Amy Vuong, vice-president of strategy of real estate management services for Colliers Canada, said the firm has conducted regular surveys among its tenants throughout the pandemic.

This year, between spring and fall, Vuong said Colliers had seen "a four per cent increase in the number of companies that said they were moving to full-time" occupancy in the office — with staff going in five days a week — with that number moving from 33 to 37 per cent. 

That may seem like a tentative gain, but Vuong said it may be indicative of a larger trend.

"A lot of companies rolled out their [return-to-office] policies on a voluntary basis this spring," said Vuong.

"We're hearing that companies are potentially looking at removing that voluntary option as we go into the fall."

Cities and commuters

In Toronto, a lot of office desks are still going unused nearly 30 months into the COVID-19 era.

The Strategic Regional Research Alliance (SRRA), an independent research group, has been keeping tabs on the level of office occupancy in Canada's most-populous city. 

The Strategic Regional Research Alliance estimates the percentage of people coming into the office in Toronto is, as of last month, less than 30 per cent of its pre-COVID equivalent. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

It estimates the proportion of people heading into these spaces — as of its most-recent snapshot from mid-August — is still less than 30 per cent of its pre-pandemic equivalent.

SRRA co-founder Iain Dobson expects that employers will want to see more people in the office this fall, if that's possible to achieve.

"We have had so many false starts," Dobson told CBC News in a telephone interview.

The Toronto Transit Commission expects a 10 to 15 per cent jump in ridership this fall, after students are back at school and "more people return to in-office work."

A file photo shows the exterior of Montreal's Côte-Vertu subway station. The Société de transport de Montréal expects to see more people taking transit this fall as students head back to school and more people head back to the office. (CBC/Radio-Canada)

That mirrors what Société de transport de Montréal is expecting.

"We are currently at 65 per cent of pre-pandemic level and we expect to get to 70 to 80 per cent this fall, mainly due to the return of workers and students," STM spokesperson Amélie Régis said in an email.

Many employees will be in the office 'more often' than now

Some notable large employers in Canada are pushing to bring more people back on-site this fall — though depending on their new working arrangements, those employees may not be going to the office every day.

Royal Bank of Canada, which has more than 60,000 employees based in Canada, is seeking to see leaders and staff in the office "more often" — with president and CEO Dave McKay making the case that people thrive from working together.

Royal Bank of Canada has more than 60,000 staff based in Canada. The company's president and CEO has indicated the organization wants to see its teams spending 'more time' in the office. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

"We know that not all roles or teams are the same, and many types of work can be done productively at home or off-site," McKay wrote in a recent post on LinkedIn.

"At the same time, there's an energy and spontaneity that comes from connecting in-person that I don't believe technology can replicate."

At Canadian Tire, corporate staff working in hybrid roles have "no mandated 'office days' or a set number of days our employees are expected to be on-site," said Christopher Gray, the company's vice-president of culture and organizational design, in an emailed statement. 

Canadian Tire corporate staff who work in hybrid roles do not have a mandated number of days they must spend in the office, according to Christopher Gray, the company's vice president of culture and organizational design. (Chris Wattie/Reuters)

Even so, Canadian Tire has invested in "new technology, modern amenities and collaboration spaces" and believes its employees "will continue to gather more frequently in person," he said.

The federal government, which employs more than 300,000 public servants, also intends to see more people stepping foot inside its facilities — and the Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat says this process has been underway, for various departments, since the spring. 

In an email, the board said "the Government of Canada has been testing new hybrid models with a view to full implementation in the fall" as public health considerations permit.

Unions representing public servants have expressed concerns about this plan.

'No real justification'

Greg Phillips, president of the Canadian Association of Professional Employees, said the government has not made a clear enough case as to why more time in the office is needed — and it hasn't indicated there's a problem with the work that public servants are doing from home either.

"No real justification is being brought forward," said Phillips, whose union represents 23,000 members including government economists, translators and interpreters.

Stanford University's Bloom has been part of a large effort to examine people's experiences working from home during the pandemic.

And the research is pointing to a future where workers want to retain the flexibility they have been accustomed to over the past two-and-a-half years.

A February 2022 survey involving more than 20,000 participants around the globe, indicated 15 per cent of these respondents would quit their jobs if they were forced to be back at work five days a week.

An even-higher proportion of Canadians — nearly 22 per cent — felt that way.

"Canada has, like the U.S., a highly developed economy with a high number of professional jobs that can [be] done remotely, a highly educated workforce and many people living a long commute from work," said Bloom.

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2022-09-04 11:20:13Z
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